Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-03 Version:4

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	268
Rep	270
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	208
Rep	180
Ind	0
Tos	150

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-1	-64	22	1	268	-64
Rep	+5	+1	+64	0	0	0	24	3	206	+64
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
81	46	27	5	3

Analysis

Two New polls show trump winning in NH, with another one tied. Trump also has a YUGE lead in Nevada with +6. Florida and NC are still going to be close.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2016-11-04 @ 02:51:18
538 has an update which talks about this map. Me-02 holds the balance between 1) a Trump electoral win (and loss in the popular vote), and 2) and exact electoral tie. It also makes the McMullen strategy (as well as that of the less likely Bernie write-in campaign) more intriguing because he would deny Trump an electoral majority if he won Utah and would make himself an eligible candidate to be chosen in the House.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	54/56	38/56	92/112	82.1%	2	6	307	T	684
2018 Senate	31/35	19/35	50/70	71.4%	1	17	246	T	483
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	4	5	194	T	678
Aggregate Predictions	136/147	87/147	223/294	75.9%

User Info

Gabagool102 Forum Profile

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