Election 2018 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-02 Version:65

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

State Pick-ups

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: man_of_honor885 (-PA) 2018-11-02 @ 16:44:59
This is quality prediction, however I only disagree with Iowa and Kanas. Those two could go either way however in kanas, due to how partisan things are, that the republican will win simply because of that (R) next to his name and of most people just voting straight one party and not caring who it is in the race. With Iowa it seems the democrat has been ahead but I could easily stay republican. We'll know in four days.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2018-11-06 @ 03:24:17
Yes funny because for the longest time the Republican was leading in IA, but I know it had been trending Democratic recently. I didn't know they were ahead though. KS is funny in that nationally, they have no chance (even then they have been gaining some Hillary did outperform Obama there in 2016), but statewise, they are a mess. Whether or not they are still Republican enough on the national level to remain that way on the state level remains to be seen. Funny thing is that many think GA and OK on the Republican side and yes even OR on the Democratic side are in play in the gubernatorial elections. I do think that OR and OK are too partisan to flip. In GA, I think the Confederate flag brouhaha will hurt Abrams just enough to cost her the election, but then again, I could be wrong as always.

By: man_of_honor885 (-PA) 2018-11-15 @ 13:14:47
Well it seems you turned out correct on this one, good job. What was really surprising was that Florida stayed with the GOP and Kansas flipped Democratic. Another thing that was a little surprising was Tom Wolf, our governor from PA, won by 17 percentage points over his challenger Scott Wagner who turned out to be a weak candidate, its probably not incredibly valid but in 2016 I didn't see one Hillary Clinton sign but this year I observed a very large amount of signs for Tom Wolf possibly speculating a difference.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2019-01-24 @ 09:30:06
I think the polls underestimated Trump's popularity in Florida, and overestimated the Democratic candidates' popularity. I think the school shooting politics there hurt Democrats too. About KS, there has been a slight Democratic trend there recently, but unless the GOP is at an all-time low, and the Dems an all-time high, KS will remain the GOP column in presidential elections probably for good. Yes I expected PA to go Dem in this year's gubernatorial election, but not by that large of an amount... Last Edit: 2019-01-24 @ 09:30:53

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2019-01-24 @ 09:36:01
We were both wrong on Ohio. I think the Republican trend there was stronger than I thought it was, especially in the Appalachian part of Ohio. I also thought DeWine was a rather weak candidate as well. He may still have been, but maybe OH is so Republican now that it doesn't matter as much as it did in the past. OH is going to be a struggle for us Dems in any election, as long the Appalachian part of Ohio keeps trending strongly GOP as it has been recently... Last Edit: 2019-01-24 @ 09:36:46

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