Changed Kansas due to Kobach leading in the primary.

Tennessee: Lean R->Tossup<br /> Idaho: Safe R->Lean R

A more R-friendly prediction, though Democrats are favorites still in Ohio and New Hampshire.

AL: Safe R<br /> AK: Tilt I, Walker will edge it out<br /> AZ: Lean D, polling already shows Ducey behind<br /> AR: Safe R<br /> CA: Safe D<br /> CO: Safe D<br /> CT: Lean D, weak Republican field<br /> FL: Lean D<br /> GA: Tilt R<br /> HI: Safe D (though Ige will lose his primary)<br /> ID: Likely R<br /> IL: Likely D<br /> IA: Lean D, unpopular Republican governor in a swing state<br /> KS: Lean D, Brownback unpopular + strong D candidate (Svaty)<br /> ME: Likely D due to ranked-choice voting system<br /> MD: Lean D, #resistors in Baltimore will sink Hogan<br /> MA: Safe R<br /> MI: Likely D, Tilt D if Thanedar is the nominee<br /> MN: Likely D<br /> NE: Safe R<br /> NV: Likely D<br /> NH: Tilt D<br /> NM: Safe D, Republicans are gone here<br /> NY: Safe D, Likely D if Nixon runs on the WFP ticket<br /> OH: Tilt D, Cordray is an extremely strong candidate<br /> OK: Tilt D, Likely R if Lamb loses the nomination<br /> OR: Safe D<br /> PA: Safe D<br /> RI: Likely D<br /> SC: Likely R<br /> SD: Likely R<br /> TN: Lean R<br /> TX: Safe R<br /> VT: Likely R, if the D field improves Lean R<br /> WI: Lean D, Walker unpopular + Supreme Court results<br /> WY: Likely R

AL: Safe R<br /> AK: Tossup, Tilt I: Despite Walker's low approval rating, the GOP candidates are weak, and the environment favors Walker.<br /> AZ: Tossup, Tilt D: Garcia is ahead of Ducey in polling, and can increase Latino turnout to defeat unpopular incumbent Ducey.<br /> AR: Safe R<br /> CA: Safe D<br /> CO: Likely D: In a state that's trending D, they should be fine.<br /> CT: Tossup, Tilt D: Malloy's "ghost" will haunt Dems, but they should be able to win a narrow victory.<br /> FL: Tossup, Tilt D: Scott barely won in 2014, and now that it's an open seat, Graham should pull this off.<br /> GA: Lean R: Although Abrams is a strong candidate, Republicans should be able to narrowly hold this one.<br /> HI: Safe D<br /> ID: Safe R<br /> IL: Lean D: The Democratic candidate is terrible, but Rauner's unpopularity will greatly help Democrats.<br /> IA: Tossup, Tilt D: Reynolds' unpopularity combined with good candidates should hand Democrats an extremely narrow win.<br /> KS: Tossup, Tilt R: Brownback's "ghost" will plague Colyer, but Orman's independent campaign may take enough votes from the Democrats to narrowly win, combined with the state's Republican lean.<br /> ME: Lean D: LePage's unpopularity combined with Collins' refusal to run will help the Democrats easily win.<br /> MD: Tossup, Tilt R: Although Hogan has high approval ratings, most Democrats will vote for his opponent (likely Jealous) and he will only narrowly win.<br /> MA: Safe R: Unlike Hogan, Baker has strong support even from Democrats.<br /> MI: Lean D: After the Flint water crisis, Snyder was in trouble. Gretchen Whitmer should be able to get >50% of the vote.<br /> MN: Lean D: Dayton is retiring, Tim Walz should beat Tim Pawlently, former governor, in an Evan Bayh-esque scenario.<br /> NE: Safe R<br /> NV: Tossup, Tilt D: Nevada his heavily trending Democratic, and Sandoval cannot run which reduces Republicans' ability to hold the seat.<br /> NH: Tossup, Tilt R: New Hampshire governor control flips frequently. Sununu will likely narrowly win, but Democrats will pick it up in 2020.<br /> NM: Likely D: Strong D candidate + Unpopular R incumbent + Trending Democratic = you get it.<br /> NY: Safe D<br /> OH: Tossup, Tilt R: Although Cordray is a good candidate, DeWine will narrowly win due to Kasich's decent approval and the state's Republican lean.<br /> OK: Likely R: The unpopularity of Fallin gives the Democrats a slim chance.<br /> OR: Safe D<br /> PA: Likely D: Wolf should be fine in a favorable year. <br /> RI: Lean D: Raimondo is unpopular, but it's Rhode Island and she should be able to win a narrow win.<br /> SC: Safe R<br /> SD: Safe R<br /> TN: Likely R: An open seat Democrats could win in a tidal wave.<br /> TX: Safe R<br /> VT: Likely R: Scott's popular in this sold blue state, but control of the governorship flips frequently. Not many good Democratic candidates.<br /> WI: Lean D: Walker's unpopularity combined with the recent Supreme Court election results should ensure Democrats can pick this one up.<br /> WY: Safe R