Election 2018 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-05 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	24
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	6
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+1	+2	-2	0	-2	22	0	22	0
Rep	+2	0	+2	-1	-1	-2	5	2	7	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0

Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	24	23	47
Republican	9	42	51
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	33	26

Analysis

Not much has changed since my last prediction; I just tweaked a few percentages and confidence intervals. I think this is the most likely outcome, but 2016 taught me not to be surprised by anything.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	2	49	T	115
2022 Senate	32/35	27/35	59/70	84.3%	4	1	69	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	30/36	64/72	88.9%	4	1	5	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	3	6	28	T	118
2020 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	6	6	179	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	22/35	54/70	77.1%	3	4	101	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	6	10	T	293
2018 Senate	33/35	26/35	59/70	84.3%	3	1	4	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	29/36	62/72	86.1%	1	3	2	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	2	1	T	149
2016 President	50/56	35/56	85/112	75.9%	3	0	66	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	22/34	53/68	77.9%	1	0	16	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	4/12	14/24	58.3%	1	0	67	T	279
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	24	72	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	3	1	21	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	3	1	73	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	64	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	7	1	47	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	24/33	56/66	84.8%	7	1	11	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	4	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	37/52	16/52	53/104	51.0%	23	-	64	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	8	0	34	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	28/37	63/74	85.1%	4	0	11	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	5	21	1	T	103
2008 President	54/56	47/56	101/112	90.2%	13	1	6	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	8	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	3	1	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	39/52	22/52	61/104	58.7%	20	-	38	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	38/49	21/49	59/98	60.2%	17	-	14		235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	169	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	27/33	58/66	87.9%	7	2	10	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	8	1	44	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	841/931	620/931	1461/1862	78.5%