Election 2018 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-06 Version:135

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	24
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	6
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+1	+2	-2	0	-2	22	0	22	0
Rep	+2	0	+2	-1	-1	-2	5	2	7	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0

Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	24	23	47
Republican	9	42	51
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 70)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
57	33	24

Analysis

My final map. Who knows? Anything can happen. Wait and see as always!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2018-11-07 @ 00:50:48
This nation is in big, big trouble after tonight. I am disappointed but not at all surprised that I think of it, not surprised at all. Somehow the GOP has managed to get away with deceiving my fellow Americans, the white evangelicals especially. It's looking more and more like Trump will be re-elected in 2020. It's a sad night to be an American. I should be surprised, but I am not. You get what you vote for. We will regret tonight, 100 percent.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2018-11-07 @ 00:51:29
I blame my fellow liberals most of all. We self-destructed yet again. We keep shooting our ownselves in the foot time and time again, and can't get out of our own way. We handed this election to the Republicans on a silver platter, 100 percent certain.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2018-11-07 @ 01:04:18
Like it or not, Hillary Clinton was still on the ballot in many Americans' eyes, even though her name technically wasn't. Perhaps Barack Obama too. Until we Dems can shake her ghost off (and probably his as well), we will not win a national election until our demographics eventually takeover. Sure long term Trump will help the Democrats, but the USA just cannot wait long term I'm afraid. I'm scared there won't even be an America after tonight. We needed help right now, and didn't get it. Sad but true for a final time. Last Edit: 2018-11-07 @ 01:04:45

By: man_of_honor885 (-PA) 2018-11-18 @ 19:43:23
Well, honestly, we will see and you may end up wrong or correct about this on many aspects or all of the fewer. Also time will tell as it impeccably seems to do. I was surprised by the results too, as we predicted similarly. I'll say that you shouldn't worry about this one election because things always change whether you or I like the current political climate is invalid to what Im saying here which is that the USA will find its way to greatness one way or another in the end.

By: man_of_honor885 (-PA) 2018-11-18 @ 19:47:23
in my current prediction for 2020 I'm going to say that if the democrats pick either Bernie Sanders or Joseph Biden, they will beat Donald Trump. In reality it can be proven by the 2018 midterms that only a progressive or a democrat with high name recognition can defeat us Republicans in 2020.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2019-01-24 @ 01:20:17
Looking back, I think we Dems have a slightly better than 50/50 shot of winning in 2020. It all depends upon the candidate. Yes the "messenger" does matter, just like it did in 2018. Hillary Clinton wasn't the right one. Man_Of_Honor, on America finding its way back to greatness, I have to disagree with you right now, as much as I hate it. Right now, the moderates are losing big time to the extremists both liberal and conservative. I only vote Dem most of the time because they are the "least of all evils," (I know many Republicans and conservatives who say the same thing), but I am very displeased with our political discourse right now. I think this hatred has sadly always loomed large unfortunately, but it's been magnified and exposed recently because of social media. They say most Americans aren't in real life what they say on social media. Sadly, they are. It's just that they're "too chicken" most of them to say that "face to face" in real life. The hate is real sad to say. I don't see it ever changing either. Sad but true for a final time. I think if the 2020 presidential election were held today, MI, WI, and PA would all flip back, and the rest of the states would remain the same. Trump can easily still win this thing. He could even lose more popular votes, and still win. We Dems are "intelligent but not smart" as they say, and in the USA, "intelligence" doesn't win elections, "smartness" does, and there is a stark difference between the two. Only Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have been able to figure that out since 1980. I think Bernie did too, but he just couldn't convince enough minority voters to win the Democratic nomination, which is an absolute must to win the Dem nomination nowadays.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2019-01-24 @ 01:22:11
Election Day 2020 is still an eternity away, and anything and everything can and will happen in politics, and does so daily. Wait and see as always! Last Edit: 2019-01-24 @ 01:22:36

By: man_of_honor885 (-PA) 2019-02-18 @ 15:35:23
Yes, I agree with you on your predictions. Thank you for the reply!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	48	75	124	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	20/36	55/72	76.4%	52	75	173	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	19	7	1	T	118
2020 President	55/56	38/56	93/112	83.0%	193	6	260	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	52	4	66	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	33	6	147	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	6	3	104	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	135	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	34/36	21/36	55/72	76.4%	66	2	122	T	372
2016 President	51/56	23/56	74/112	66.1%	290	1	473	T	678
2014 Senate	35/36	20/36	55/72	76.4%	22	13	122	T	382
2012 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	85	2	401	T	760
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	5	36	2	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	63	0	63	T	456
2008 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	167	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	21	7	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	16	0	50	T	264
2007 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	4	27	135	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	514/541	337/541	851/1082	78.7%

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