Election 2018 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-10-15 Version:8

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	12
Ind	2
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	35 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	6
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-3	0	-3	21	0	21	-3
Rep	+3	0	+3	0	0	0	6	3	9	+3
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0

Predicted Senate Control (116th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	23	44
Republican	12	42	54
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

Moved Nevada into the Republican Column for Dean Heller after his constant leads in recent Polling. Democrat Debbie Stabenow is now only ahead by 9 points in a recent poll leading me to conclude that senate race will narrow down.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2018-10-15 @ 20:39:27
It appears the Kavanaugh hearings have given the Republicans at least a temporary boost. Whether or not that will remain the case on Election Day is yet to be seen...

By: man_of_honor885 (-PA) 2018-10-20 @ 09:55:16
That seems to be the case at this point, we will have to see if things change right before the 2018 midterm elections.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	50/56	33/56	83/112	74.1%	5	142	593	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	23/35	54/70	77.1%	1	362	101	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	364	51	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	144	35	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	20/35	53/70	75.7%	11	0	132	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	24/36	56/72	77.8%	6	2	94	T	372
Aggregate Predictions	159/176	109/176	268/352	76.1%