Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-11-04 Version:22

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	21
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	12
Rep	17
Ind	0
Tos	7
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-4	-7	13	1	14	-7
Rep	+3	+4	+7	-1	0	-1	11	3	14	+6
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	14	32	46
Republican	21	30	51
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
60	33	27

Analysis

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Begich wins due to his ground game, the conflicting polls, and the mystery of Alaska. Aside from that, no major changes. Republicans look set to take the Senate, though I certainly hope my prediction is wrong.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2014-11-04 @ 00:32:28
I'm seeing much the same but like you I hope I am wrong.

By: IceSpear (D-PA) 2014-11-04 @ 01:02:42
Here's hoping for 2012-esque widespread polling error! In our favor, of course, haha.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	54/56	50/56	104/112	92.9%	1	472	4	T	684
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	106	35	T	192
2018 Senate	31/35	24/35	55/70	78.6%	8	1	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%	8	3	56	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	11	1	T	149
2016 President	49/56	33/56	82/112	73.2%	7	1	149	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	22/34	54/68	79.4%	7	1	6	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	7	1	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	3	1	57	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	22	0	21	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	18/36	48/72	66.7%	22	0	73	T	300
Aggregate Predictions	276/309	210/309	486/618	78.6%