Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-18 Version:96

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	20
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	10
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-3	-4	-7	13	1	14	-6
Rep	+3	+4	+7	-1	-1	-2	11	2	13	+5
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	15	32	47
Republican	20	30	50
Independent	1	2	3

Analysis

Democrats keep the majority in the US Senate by holding onto MI,NH,NC,and LA(Landrieu-D either gets 50.1 percent in November or wins the December runoff since she will end up being the 48th seat if she were to win). Democrats will pick up GA-Nunn-D gets 50.1 percent in November or wins December runoff since she will end up being the 49th seat if she were to win. That leaves us KS- Orman-I wins by a plurality. He decides to caucus with the Democrats after Landrieu-LA and Nunn-GA victories in December.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-18 @ 09:47:09
Republicans lose GA and KS, hold onto KY, and gain MT,WV,SD,AK,AR,CO,and IA- 50 seats. They win the GA and LA runoffs in December- 52 seats Orman-KS decides to caucus with the Republicans- 53 seats. If Brown-NH and Tillis-NC win- 55 seats in a strong GOP wave. <br /> 2016- Democrats lose NV- Reid-D loses to Sandoval-R and CO- Bennett-D loses to Tipton-R- 43D <br /> Democrats will need to pick up 7 seats to regain control of the U.S. Senate assuming Hillary wins in November. Democrats win WI- Feingold-D vs Johnson-R rematch, PA- Kane-D defeats Sestak-D in primary then Toomey-R in the general, IL- Kirk-R loses to either Madigan-D,Hynes-D or Vallas-D, AZ- Giffords/Kelly defeat McCain or the R that defeats McCain in the primary, KY- Paul-R has to retire to run for President. Grimes-D,Conway-D or Edelen-D defeat the likely GOP nominee, FL- Graham,Sink,and Wasserman Schultz, defeats Rubio, and GA- Isakson-R retires or loses in the GOP primary- Nunn-D or Carter-D defeats the likely GOP nominee.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2014-10-18 @ 14:15:01
Problem- GA runoff is not until January 6, after the Senate organizes. Orman would caucus with the GOP in this scenario, at least initially.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-18 @ 23:15:56
Republicans are likely to regain control of the U.S. Senate in 2014- They hold onto GA,KS,and KY, and pick up MT,WV,SD,AK,AR,and LA. IA and CO are Republican pickups during a strong GOP wave. Democrats will end up with 47 seats. In 2016, Democrats need to hold onto CO and NV and pick up WI,PA,and IL plus AZ and FL

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	20	4	10	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	221	4	164	T	362
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	97	16	42	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	16/36	44/72	61.1%	1	325	171	T	300
2012 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	111	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%	27	38	74	T	343
Aggregate Predictions	227/251	161/251	388/502	77.3%