Final.

I'm calling Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee. I probably won't update this map again.

I'm calling New Jersey and Montana and moving them to Strong. I'm tempted to put Virginia as Lean D, but I'd like to see one more poll before doing so.

Going out on a limb. Webb is to 2006 as Kaine was to 2005.

With a heavy heart, Tennessee moves back to Tossup R.

The new M-D poll puts Allen still far too close for me to be comfortable with this race as a lean. Remember Kaine's last-minute surge; he was also down (by 2 in M-D, as opposed to 3 for Webb currently) at this point in the campaign and won by 6 points.

Okay, Toss-up was an exaggeration. Connecticut is Lean, but no polls yet.

Ohio is Safe Dem. Another corroborating poll.

Connecticut has charged back to a toss-up after Schlesinger's impressive debate performance. I expect to see a significant bounce for him in the next poll, probably putting a serious dent in Lieberman's numbers.

We shall see.

De-confidencing some races simply due to some outcry against my methods. Missouri is now Lean Dem, however; SUSA shows McCaskill up 9 with over 50%, and every pollster except Zogby (*snort*) puts her ahead (or tied, in the case of M-D).

Also, Washington rises back to >50%. Cantwell will cruise.

Some minor margin changes, and Virginia back to Lean R after new revelations. Allen will probably still pull through, but I'd like to see a couple of new polls first.

I am calling Connecticut, Virginia and New Jersey for the incumbents now, and leaning Tennessee towards the Dems.

Strong means that I've made up my mind and I'm calling it for that party. Lean means that I'm hesitant to call it but that party is likely to win. Toss-up means I can't say that the odds or more than 51% for that party to win. This is different from most other predictors, who tend to do confidence by gap. Gaps are reflected in the percentage of the vote.

Ohio and Rhode Island move to Strong D. Missouri will probably be won with less than a majority; that is reflected now.

Not actually changing my prediction, just doing some updates that I forgot about previously.

Also, Cantwell in Washington will have difficulty pulling over 50% with the influential Libertarian. She should still win easily.

This is my final prediction.

Montana (Dem Pickup)
Tester: 54%
Burns: 44%
Others: 2%

Missouri (Dem Pickup)
McCaskill: 49.8%
Talent: 49.7%
Others: 0.5%

Tennessee (Dem Pickup)
Ford: 52%
Corker: 47%
Others: 1%

Ohio (Dem Pickup)
Brown: 55%
DeWine: 44%
Others: 1%

Pennsylvania (Dem Pickup)
Casey: 57%
Santorum: 43%

Virginia (GOP Hold)
Allen: 52%
Webb: 47%
Others: 1%

New Jersey (Dem Hold)
Menendez: 52%
Kean: 46%
Others: 2%

Connecticut (Ind Pickup/Dem Hold)
Lieberman: 46%
Lamont: 44%
Schlesinger: 10%

Rhode Island (Dem Pickup)
Whitehouse: 52%
Chafee: 48%

Changed my mind on Missouri... again. Toss-up R back to Toss-up D.

Montana to Solid D. Burns is toast.

A tiny change: Utah from 60% to 70%.

Two changes: Maryland from Lean D to Solid D, and Missouri from Toss-up D to Toss-up R.

Based on the breakdown of the SUSA poll data, Virginia is moved to a toss-up. (Basically, Allen led in the first two days of polling then trailed in the last as more news came out. SUSA calls the race "volatile", so I must also.)

I am tempted to put Missouri as a GOP toss-up, but things are still going so badly for the Republicans that McCaskill gets an edge for now.

On the interesting states (from west to east):

Washington
McGavick has tanked. Cantwell was probably never in serious danger, but now she is cruising. Strong Dem.

Montana
Burns has lost the race in Montana as much as Tester has won it. However, Tester has run an amazing campaign as well. Montana, being completely run by Democrats already (in the State Senate and Statehouse), is not as Democrat-unfriendly as some might think. This race may even move to more solid than Pennsylvania in the final few weeks of the campaign. Lean Dem.

Missouri
I am a bit hesitant to call this one for anyone, but McCaskill gets the edge simply because this is a Democratic-leaning year, and the Republicans look to lose a House seat in Iowa as well. Talent is a rather lackluster candidate, and he beat the wife of a dead politician, not a true politician, in 2002. Toss-up with an edge to McCaskill.

Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar has proven herself more than adequately, and Kennedy's campaign never really made it off the ground. Ahead by increasing amounts in every poll for a long run of months, Klobuchar has kept what could have been a very precarious situation for the Dems safe. Safe Dem.

Tennessee
This one has surprised. Once Corker won the nomination, I expected the Republicans to tramp to victory. However, Ford has run a strong campaign, and Corker is foundering in a sudden sea of scandal. Toss-up with an edge to Ford.

Florida
Haha. Katherine Harris. Good joke. Strong Dem.

Ohio
The Ohio GOP is in big, big trouble, and DeWine is suffering. That's really all there is to say. Brown was hurt in early polls by the Hackett affair, but that has faded from the voters' minds, and the hatred of all things Republican in Ohio will defeat the otherwise rather inoffensive DeWine. Lean Dem.

Virginia
Webb has not capitalized as much as he could have on Allen's recent series of missteps beginning with the 'macaca' incident. This one will be tight, but I have to give it to Allen, especially noting his incumbency and relative popularity prior to his missteps (unlike Burns, for example, who was never popular). Lean GOP.

Pennsylvania
Santorum's big-budget attempts to shift things in his favor have been a big bust. To some extent, voters have returned to the GOP fold, but most of it has been natural tightening. There still isn't really a race here. Strong Dem.

Maryland
Cardin was probably a better choise than Mfume for the Democrats, and Maryland is heavily Dem. Steele hasn't done much except play the race card, and that's not enough to win. Lean Dem.

New Jersey
I still am not convinced that Kean is actually ahead. Close, yes, but not ahead. Still, polls have shown him always very close to Menendez. Going by local opinions, things haven't changed at all and Kean will lose, but my area of NJ is not representative of the whole. (On the other hand, it was correct when people said Bush could win NJ in 2004, and when people said Forrester could defeat Corzine in 2005.) Toss-up with an edge to Menendez.

Connecticut
It's very close, even extremely close, despite a few rogue polls that put Lieberman way ahead. I expect that Schlesinger will pull a larger amount than he is polling simply by virtue of the R by his name and appearing under Jodi Rell. That will hurt Lieberman and benefit Lamont. Toss-up with an edge to Lieberman.

Rhode Island
Nothing like a primary to remind Rhode Island that, yes, Lincoln Chafee is one of those hick Republicans. Whitehouse has been slightly ahead in the polls for a while, long enough not to label this a toss-up any more. Lean Dem.

 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-07 @ 12:44:17

I agree, looks like a winner. We'll know in about 10 hours.

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