While Nikki Haley's vote share has been surprisingly resilient, especially in the recent Indiana primary, one should not assume that all these protest voters will vote for President Joe Biden. Some may, though a large majority will come home to Donald Trump, I am sure. This is also true on the Democratic side with those protest voting against Pres. Biden. Primary voters are the most engaged people, and they are not likely to stay home come the general election. Regarding Mr. Trump's trials, as I mentioned before, I do not think these will have much of an impact, especially since they seem very unlikely to conclude by November. Here are the standings for all the remaining states. In Maryland, Trump: 82%, Haley: 13%. In Nebraska, Trump: 79%, Haley: 18%. In West Virginia, Trump: 88%, Haley: 9%. In Kentucky, Trump: 84%, Haley: 13%. In Oregon, Trump: 81%, Haley: 13%. In Montana, Trump: 79%, Haley: 18%. In New Jersey, Trump: 83%, Haley: 8%. In New Mexico, Trump: 82%, Haley: 9%. In South Dakota, Trump: 86%, Haley: 10%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being over 25%, all remaining states are Solid Trump. There has been no nationwide polling in the past two months, so we must assume that it remains with Trump leading with 83% of the vote. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 2,043, Haley: 98, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3

While Nikki Haley's vote share has been surprisingly resilient, especially in the recent Indiana primary, one should not assume that all these protest voters will vote for President Joe Biden. Some may, though a large majority will come home to Donald Trump, I am sure. This is also true on the Democratic side with those protest voting against Pres. Biden. Primary voters are the most engaged people, and they are not likely to stay home come the general election. Regarding Mr. Trump's trials, as I mentioned before, I do not think these will have much of an impact, especially since they seem very unlikely to conclude by November. Here are the standings for all the remaining states. In Maryland, Trump: 82%, Haley: 13%. In Nebraska, Trump: 79%, Haley: 18%. In West Virginia, Trump: 88%, Haley: 9%. In Kentucky, Trump: 84%, Haley: 13%. In Oregon, Trump: 81%, Haley: 13%. In Montana, Trump: 79%, Haley: 18%. In New Jersey, Trump: 83%, Haley: 8%. In New Mexico, Trump: 82%, Haley: 9%. In South Dakota, Trump: 86%, Haley: 10%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being over 25%, all remaining states are Solid Trump. There has been no nationwide polling in the past two months, so we must assume that it remains with Trump leading with 83% of the vote. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 2,043, Haley: 98, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3

Donald Trump's trial for the hush money payments to Stormy Daniels begins today. However, I honestly don't think any of the four trials against Trump (New York Stormy Daniels, District of Columbia January 6, Florida classified documents, Georgia election interference) will move the needle much, especially since I don't expect them to conclude before the election. Regardless, they may still help President Joe Biden court disaffected Nikki Haley voters. Pres. Biden's large campaign chest should certainly help with that, but we will need to wait and see if it can work. It may be possible to convince independents, but most Republicans eventually fall in line, just like how New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu already has. Here are the standings for all the remaining states. In Wyoming, Trump: 95%. In Puerto Rico, Trump: 82%, Haley: 11%. In Pennsylvania, Trump: 83%, Haley: 9%. In Indiana, Trump: 85%, Haley: 8%. In Maryland, Trump: 81%, Haley: 10%. In Nebraska, Trump: 88%, Haley: 6%. In West Virginia, Trump: 91%, Haley: 5%. In Kentucky, Trump: 87%, Haley: 8%. In Oregon, Trump: 81%, Haley: 10%. In Montana, Trump: 87%, Haley: 9%. In New Jersey, Trump: 83%, Haley: 8%. In New Mexico, Trump: 82%, Haley: 9%. In South Dakota, Trump: 88%, Haley: 6%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being over 25%, all remaining states are Solid Trump. There has been no nationwide polling in the past month, so we must assume that it remains with Trump leading with 83% of the vote. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 1,867, Haley: 97, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3

Despite having no primary opponents remaining, the results of the past 2 weeks show that Donald Trump is having trouble getting higher than the low-80s in many states, especially outside the South. On one hand, this does show significant weakness with Haley-supporting moderate Republican voters who may not turn out for Mr. Trump in November, or even vote for President Joe Biden, or Robert Kennedy Jr., or another third-party candidate. On the other hand, Republican voters typically and up falling in line, especially if Mr. Trump can convince these Haley-voters that Pres. Biden would be an even worse alternative. Pres. Biden himself is working to court these moderate Haley-voters. We will need to wait and see how things evolve. Here are the standings for all the remaining states. In Louisiana, Trump: 88%, Haley: 8%. In Wyoming, Trump: 93%. In Connecticut, Trump: 77%, Haley: 15%. In Delaware, Trump: 100%, because the primary was cancelled. In New York, Trump: 78%, Haley: 16%. In Rhode Island, Trump: 77%, Haley: 16%. In Wisconsin, Trump: 81%, Haley: 13%. In Puerto Rico, Trump: 80%, Haley: 11%. In Pennsylvania, Trump: 81%, Haley: 14%. In Indiana, Trump: 82%, Haley: 13%. In Maryland, Trump: 78%, Haley: 16%. In Nebraska, Trump: 86%, Haley: 9%. In West Virginia, Trump: 89%, Haley: 5%. In Kentucky, Trump: 87%, Haley: 8%. In Oregon, Trump: 79%, Haley: 15%. In Montana, Trump: 86%, Haley: 9%. In New Jersey, Trump: 79%, Haley: 15%. In New Mexico, Trump: 81%, Haley: 13%. In South Dakota, Trump: 88%, Haley: 8%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being over 25%, all remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 83%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 1,643, Haley: 95, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3. Mr. Trump has officially passed the 1,215 delegates needed to secure the nomination of the Republican Party on the first ballot.

Nikki Haley finally dropped out today after Super Tuesday. I do not know what caused this, because she was just as hopeless in winning the GOP primary before yesterday as she is today. I do wish she had stayed in longer, for the data's sake, but we can already tell that Donald Trump has a serious issue with college-educated voters, who may stay home in November, or even vote for another candidate. We will see if these issues persist over the coming months, or if Mr. Trump can somehow win back these voters with an anti-Biden message. Here are the standings for all the remaining states. In Puerto Rico, Trump: 88%, Haley: 11%. In Georgia, Trump: 89%, Haley: 10%. In Hawaii, Trump: 88%, Haley: 11%. In Mississippi, Trump: 93%, Haley: 6%. In Washington, Trump: 87%, Haley: 12%. In Arizona, Trump: 88%, Haley: 11%. In Florida, Trump: 91%, Haley: 8%. In Illinois, Trump: 87%, Haley: 12%. In Kansas, Trump: 87%, Haley: 12%. In Ohio, Trump: 88%, Haley: 11%. In Louisiana, Trump: 91%, Haley: 8%. In Wyoming, Trump: 95%. In Connecticut, Trump: 87%, Haley: 12%. In Delaware, Trump: 87%, Haley: 12%. In New York, Trump: 88%, Haley: 11%. In Rhode Island, Trump: 87%, Haley: 12%. In Wisconsin, Trump: 88%, Haley: 11%. In Pennsylvania, Trump: 88%, Haley: 11%. In Indiana, Trump: 88%, Haley: 11%. In Maryland, Trump: 87%, Haley: 12%. In Nebraska, Trump: 91%, Haley: 8%. In West Virginia, Trump: 92%, Haley: 7%. In Kentucky, Trump: 91%, Haley: 8%. In Oregon, Trump: 87%, Haley: 12%. In Montana, Trump: 90%, Haley: 9%. In New Jersey, Trump: 87%, Haley: 12%. In New Mexico, Trump: 88%, Haley: 11%. In South Dakota, Trump: 92%, Haley: 7%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being over 25%, all remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 88%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 1,089, Haley: 95, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3

Nikki Haley just won her first, and probably only, contest of the 2024 GOP primary in DC. I am not sure whether that has any bearing on her continuing in the race after Super Tuesday. She must already know that she has no chance of winning, so perhaps spite is what is propelling her to continue her campaign. The question, though, is whether it will last until the convention. Here are the standings for the Super Tuesday states. In North Dakota, Trump: 88%, Haley: 11%. In Alabama, Trump: 78%, Haley: 21%. In Alaska, Trump: 79%, Haley: 20%. In Arkansas, Trump: 78%, Haley: 21%. In California, Trump: 75%, Haley: 24%. In Colorado, Trump: 76%, Haley: 23%. In Maine, Trump: 79%, Haley: 20%. In Massachusetts, Trump: 66%, Haley: 33%. In Minnesota, Trump: 68%, Haley: 31%. In North Carolina, Trump: 79%, Haley: 20%. In Oklahoma, Trump: 77%, Haley: 22%. In Tennessee, Trump: 78%, Haley: 21%. In Texas, Trump: 78%, Haley: 21%. In Utah, Trump: 69%, Haley: 30%. In Vermont, Trump: 56%, Haley: 43%. In Virginia, Trump: 67%, Haley: 32%. In Puerto Rico, Trump: 62%, Haley: 37%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being under 25%, Vermont and Puerto Rico are rated as Lean Trump, while the remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 84%, followed by Ms. Haley at 16%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 247, Haley: 43, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3

Both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley did about as I expected in Michigan. I do think that Mr. Trump's weakness with college-educated voters is a bigger issue for him than any trouble President Joe Biden is having with uncommitted voters. Here are the standings for the remaining pre-Super-Tuesday states. In Missouri, Trump: 83%, Haley: 16%. In Idaho, Trump: 82%, Haley: 17%. In the District of Columbia, Haley: 53%, Trump: 46%. In North Dakota, Trump: 81%, Haley: 18%. Due to Ms. Haley's lead being under 10%, DC is a Toss-up, while the remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 83%, followed by Ms. Haley at 17%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 122, Haley: 24, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3

Nikki Haley did better in South Carolina than I expected, holding Donald Trump under 60%. This, I am sure, will fuel her to stay in until Super Tuesday at least. It has also altered my view of the Michigan primary, considering John Kasich and Marco Rubio combined for 34% of the vote there in 2016. It's undeniable at this point that Mr. Trump has a college-educated voter problem, which may be a big issue in November as well. The Michigan primary tomorrow is only for 16 statewide delegates, and a separate caucus will be held on March 2nd for the remaining 39 district delegates. I assume Mr. Trump will perform better in the caucus than in the primary. One day before the Michigan primary, here are the standings. In Michigan, Trump: 69%, Haley: 30%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being over 25%, Michigan is Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 83%, followed by Ms. Haley at 17%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 110, Haley: 20, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3

I really don't know if Nikki Haley will remain in the race after South Carolina. She claims to want to stay in until Super Tuesday at least, but I do not see the point. Then again, all doors to her were closed in New Hampshire already, so perhaps she is just running on spite. The day before the South Carolina primary, here are the standings in the remaining first five primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these five primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. In South Carolina, Trump: 66%, Haley: 33%. In Michigan, Trump: 76%, Haley: 23%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being over 25%, all remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 83%, followed by Ms. Haley at 17%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 63, Haley: 17, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3

Nikki Haley lost the unsanctioned Nevada primary last night to "None of these Candidates," demonstrating Donald Trump's dominance of the GOP. The day before the Nevada caucuses, here are the standings in the remaining first five primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these five primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. In Nevada, Trump: 92%. Note that Ms. Haley is not on the ballot in the Nevada caucus. In South Carolina, Trump: 66%, Haley: 33%. In Michigan. Trump: 74%, Haley: 25%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being over 25%, all remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 81%, followed by Ms. Haley at 19%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 33, Haley: 17, DeSantis: 9, Ramaswamy: 3

Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out on the night of the Iowa caucuses, and Ron DeSantis dropped out yesterday, leaving Nikki Haley as the only significant challenger to Donald Trump. Just one day before the New Hampshire primary, here are the standings in the remaining first five primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these five primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. In New Hampshire, Trump: 58%, Haley: 41%. In Nevada, Trump: 91%. Note that Ms. Haley is not on the ballot in the Nevada caucus. In South Carolina, Trump: 66%, Haley: 33%. In Michigan. Trump: 75%, Haley: 25%. Due to Mr. Trump's lead being under 25%, New Hampshire is rated as Lean Trump. The remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 85%, followed by Ms. Haley at 15%. PLEDGED DELEGATE RESULTS: Trump: 20, DeSantis: 9, Haley: 8, Ramaswamy: 3

Just one day before the Iowa caucuses, here are the standings in the first five primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these five primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. In Iowa, Trump: 51%, Haley: 20%, DeSantis: 17%, Ramaswamy: 9%. In New Hampshire, Trump: 46%, Haley: 40%, DeSantis: 7%, Ramaswamy: 5%. In Nevada, Trump: 67%, Haley: 16%, DeSantis: 10%, Ramaswamy: 7%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll, and there haven't been many high quality polls of the state. In South Carolina, Trump: 57%, Haley: 29%, DeSantis: 8%. In Michigan. Trump: 63%, Haley: 20%, DeSantis: 13%. Due to Trump's lead being under 10%, New Hampshire is rated as Toss-up. The remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 68%, followed by Ms. Haley at 13%, and Mr. DeSantis also at 13%.

We are 25 days from the Iowa caucuses. Here are the standings in the first five primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these five primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. In Iowa, Trump: 50%, DeSantis: 18%, Haley: 16%, Ramaswamy: 6%. In New Hampshire, Trump: 45%, Haley: 24%, Christie: 11%, DeSantis: 9%, Ramaswamy: 7%. In Nevada, Trump: 67%, DeSantis: 10%, Ramaswamy: 10%, Haley: 9%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll, and there haven't been many high quality polls of the state. In South Carolina, Trump: 51%, Haley: 22%, DeSantis: 14%, Ramaswamy: 5%. In Michigan. Trump: 65%, DeSantis: 13%, Haley: 13%. Due to Trump being under 50%, New Hampshire is rated as Lean Trump. The remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 67%, followed by Mr. DeSantis at 13%, and Ms. Haley at 12%.

We are 48 days from the Iowa caucuses, and under a year from the general election. Here are the standings in the first five primary states. I did not want to make predictions for any of the following states, as the outcomes of these five primaries will certainly alter polling in the states that follow. In Iowa, Trump: 45%, DeSantis: 18%, Haley: 15%, Ramaswamy: 5%. In New Hampshire, Trump: 45%, Haley: 19%, Christie: 12%, DeSantis: 8%, Ramaswamy: 7%. In Nevada, Trump: 63%, DeSantis: 12%, Ramaswamy: 8%, Haley: 7%. Note, however, that Nevada is notoriously hard to poll, and there haven't been many high quality polls of the state. In South Carolina, Trump: 50%, Haley: 21%, DeSantis: 11%. In Michigan. Trump: 64%, DeSantis: 16%, Haley: 5%. Due to Trump being under 50%, Iowa and New Hampshire are rated as Lean Trump. The remaining states are Solid Trump. In nationwide polling, Mr. Trump leads with 65%, followed by Mr. DeSantis at 14%, Ms. Haley at 11%, and Mr. Ramaswamy at 5%.