Date of Prediction: 2024-05-22 Version:5
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Been a bit more restrictive with using toss-ups and leans. Moved GA to Lean R, since well if NC is considered Lean R GA should as well, and i don't see a number of signs that Biden could still win here. It's possible but getting increasingly unlikely, hence i haven't moved it into Strong R. Moved PA back to Trump as well since it seems Biden could lose additional ground compared to 2020. I'm starting to increasingly believe this election might not end up razorthin close at all and that Trump could win by a larger margin than in 2016. But time is on Biden's side. A lot can still change.
Prediction History
Comments History
- hide
Version: 4 Moved PA back into the democrats column because I don't think the GOP has much room to grow here. Philadelphia in 2020 wasn't great for Biden, and they didn't have any trouble. The rurals are maxed out. The trend in the suburbs favour the Democrats. Biden has a little room to fall in PA but I believe it'll narrowly remain in his column.
Version History Member Comments User's Predictions
Links
|
Back to 2024 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home