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Date of Prediction: 2024-05-22 Version:5
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Been a bit more restrictive with using toss-ups and leans. Moved GA to Lean R, since well if NC is considered Lean R GA should as well, and i don't see a number of signs that Biden could still win here. It's possible but getting increasingly unlikely, hence i haven't moved it into Strong R. Moved PA back to Trump as well since it seems Biden could lose additional ground compared to 2020. I'm starting to increasingly believe this election might not end up razorthin close at all and that Trump could win by a larger margin than in 2016. But time is on Biden's side. A lot can still change.
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