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Date of Prediction: 2024-05-21 Version:11
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Based on latest Polls and Trends
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 11 Based on latest Polls and Trends Version: 8 Flip PA to Trump based on latest polls Version: 7 Updating margins and confidence levels. Version: 6 Shift Nevada to solid R, MI to leans R, and NE-02 to leans R Version: 5 Shifted Hawaii to lean, change PA from R to D and to tossup, and NV to 50% R.<br /> <br /> The change in Hawaii is based on the response of the people after the visit from Biden after the wildfires. While he still likely wins the state, I am not ruling out an upset Trump victory there if he plays his cards right. Version: 4 Update based on polls. As most polls show a Trump victory, have upped confidence to leans in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia. Version: 3 Still thinking there will be a very thin popular vote margin between Trump and Biden, but with several left-leaning third party candidates running, there will be a sizable EC victory for Trump. Version: 2 With RFK involved, the election I think will end up like this. He will split the vote between Biden, giving a narrow victory in several states to Trump, leading to a sizeable electoral college victory.<br />
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