Predictions2024 Presidential Predictions - ChristianMan (I-MA) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2024-05-16 Version:22

Prediction Map
ChristianMan MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
ChristianMan MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem241
 
Rep297
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem217
 
Rep222
 
Ind0
 
Tos99
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem0+1+1-50-62211240-61
Rep+50+620-1-1253235+61
Ind0000000000


Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 20

We're at the point in the election cycle where I want to try to update this weekly.


Version: 11

No changes in terms of the electoral vote, but the Republican trend in Michigan is becoming more apparent.


Version: 9

November has not been a kind month for Biden. Biden has lost Michigan due to the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, while losing marginal support in several other key states.


Version: 8

Now that we're less than a year away from the next election cycle, I thought it would be time to start doing bimonthly updates. No major changes except for Biden slightly improving in the Rust Belt.


Version: 6

I think it's close enough to post my October analysis. Definitely some bad news for Biden but it remains close.


Version: 5

Biden has improved although other than the potential pickup of Alaska, there are no significant changes on this map.


Version: 4

For the first time since I have tracked polling, it appears as though Biden would win re-election by the E.C. although at this point it looks to be narrower than last time. The last month has been horrid for both Trump and DeSantis and moderates are noticing.


Version: 3

Not much of a change overall but Trump is in a slightly better place compared to predictions from the last update.


Version: 2

June 2023 update: Things are looking slightly better for Biden with an approval rating similar to where Trump was around election day in 2020. The GOP is still slightly favored over economic concerns but Biden is in a better place than he was last month.


Version: 1

Early analysis with a 36/56 approval rating according to recent polling from Politico. I'll try to update this intermediately as more polls come out but early indications is that it does not look good for President Biden.


Version History


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 261
P 2023 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 3 2 1T115
P 2022 Senate 31/35 25/35 56/70 80.0% pie 12 0 147T305
P 2022 Governor 32/36 28/36 60/72 83.3% pie 12 0 66T272
P 2021 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 65 48T118
P 2020 President 51/56 44/56 95/112 84.8% pie 4 7 179T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 22/35 53/70 75.7% pie 3 5 137T423
Aggregate Predictions 149/167 123/167 272/334 81.4% pie


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