Date of Prediction: 2024-05-16 Version:22
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Confidence States Won
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Version: 20 We're at the point in the election cycle where I want to try to update this weekly. Version: 11 No changes in terms of the electoral vote, but the Republican trend in Michigan is becoming more apparent. Version: 9 November has not been a kind month for Biden. Biden has lost Michigan due to the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, while losing marginal support in several other key states. Version: 8 Now that we're less than a year away from the next election cycle, I thought it would be time to start doing bimonthly updates. No major changes except for Biden slightly improving in the Rust Belt. Version: 6 I think it's close enough to post my October analysis. Definitely some bad news for Biden but it remains close. Version: 5 Biden has improved although other than the potential pickup of Alaska, there are no significant changes on this map. Version: 4 For the first time since I have tracked polling, it appears as though Biden would win re-election by the E.C. although at this point it looks to be narrower than last time. The last month has been horrid for both Trump and DeSantis and moderates are noticing. Version: 3 Not much of a change overall but Trump is in a slightly better place compared to predictions from the last update. Version: 2 June 2023 update: Things are looking slightly better for Biden with an approval rating similar to where Trump was around election day in 2020. The GOP is still slightly favored over economic concerns but Biden is in a better place than he was last month. Version: 1 Early analysis with a 36/56 approval rating according to recent polling from Politico. I'll try to update this intermediately as more polls come out but early indications is that it does not look good for President Biden.
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