Analysis
FINAL PREDICTION:
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)
Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE)
projected to win 52.5% of the popular vote and 353 electoral votes.
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK)
projected to win 46% of the popular vote and 185 electoral votes.
Margin of error: 90% confidence on a 50.5-54.5 to 44-48 Obama victory with 291 to 396 electoral votes, i.e. 2-point margin of error on the popular vote and 62 electoral votes on the electoral count.
AL: M 62, O 37
AK: M 57, O 38
AZ: M 53, 0 46
AR: M 55, O 44
CA: O 61, M 38
CO: O 52, M 47
CT: O 58, M 40
DE: O 58, M 40
FL: O 51, M 48
GA: M 52, O 46
HI: O 65, M 33
ID: M 63, O 35
IL: O 61, M 38
IN: M 50, O 49
IA: O 55, M 44
KS: M 56, O 43
KY: M 56, O 43
LA: M 57, O 42
ME: O 57, M 41
MD: O 58, M 40
MA: O 61, M 38
MI: O 56, M 43
MN: O 55, M 44
MS: M 54, O 45
MO: M 50, O 49
MT: M 50, O 46
NE: M 58, 0 40
NV: O 52, M 47
NH: O 54, M 45
NJ: O 58, M 41
NM: O 55, M 44
NY: O 62, M 37
NC: O 50, M 49
ND: M 51, O 48
OH: O 52, M 47
OK: M 63, O 37
OR: O 56, M 42
PA: O 53, M 46
RI: O 61, M 37
SC: M 56, O 43
SD: M 54, O 45
TN: M 56, O 43
TX: M 55, O 44
UT: M 65, O 33
VT: O 61, M 36
VA: O 52, M 47
WA: O 57, M 41
WV: M 55, O 44
WI: O 55, M 44
WY: M 61, O 38
DC: O 90, M 8
Toss-up means the state can essentially go both ways.
Lean means the chance are at least 5 to 1 the state will go for the candidate, but no more than 20 to 1.
Strong means the state goes for the candidate unless an unforeseen event or landslide occurs on one side or the other.