Idaho is boggling my mind and is scaring me with its last-minute Democratic surge, so much so that I'm chalking it up as a Democratic gain. I won't be surprised if it's not, but damn, for it to even be considered as one...

Not much change elsewhere. I've downgraded Oklahoma from 70% D to 60% D, as I expected I would. It'd be nice to imagine. :)

I'm holding Texas at 40% R even though every poll has it at under 40% because I have a feeling there'll be a last-minute increase in Perry's percentage from people who can't bring themselves to vote against a guy with an R next to his name.

The breakdown of confidence goes like this:

Strong - I would be seriously, seriously surprised if the other candidate won this race. The other candidate should get nowhere near victory.

Lean - It's possible that the other candidate could win, but it's not the likely outcome. Victory here will likely be within single digits.

Tossup - I really have no idea what to think here. If the other guy won, I honestly would not be surprised. It's anybody's game, and whoever wins will win it with a very small margin.

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:54:27

Not bad. I disagree with you about Perry getting more than 40%, and naturally I can give you a few arguments about your Illinois prediction and confidence. Nonetheless, not bad though.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 03:11:28

I'm not sure Otter will lose in Idaho. Sali is the one who is really in trouble. I'm don't think Idahoans (Idahoians?) are ready for a Democratic Governor even if the Idaho Senate leader called Otter an idiot.

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