Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:30
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 72)
Comments
Final call. Maybe I'll look a fool when Merrill falls way short in Maine, but I think I have the rest spot on. Nevada is the only other big question mark.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 29 Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Barbara Merrill is going to pull a come-out-of-nowhere upset on Baldacci. She has an extremely impressive GOTV campaign and tons of loyal supporters. Baldacci is unpopular, and Woodcock is not seen by Democrats and Independents as a viable alternative. She's still way behind in the polls, but has closed the gap remarkably in the last week or so. Version: 28 Hatch has led in every poll for over a month. Despite the small size of each lead, Minnesota now leans Dem. Version: 27 I'm going to go out on a limb and say Nevada will go Dem. Also, Oregon and Iowa are not going to flip at this point. Version: 26 Alaska back to lean R, Wisconsin to safe D. Version: 25 Maryland is backpeddling. Version: 24 Republicans are throwing away race after race at the last minute! Nevada to Tossup R. Version: 23 Nevada <50% R due to the "None of these" choice. Version: 22 Idaho joins Minnesota as a Toss-up. Wow. Version: 21 Florida to Strong R, Maryland to Strong D, Massachusetts to >60% Dem. Version: 20 Texas is all over now. Lean R to Strong R. Version: 19 Illinois to >40%, Idaho to Lean R. Version: 18 News from Idaho is interesting... D internal shows Brady leading. I don't buy it, but Otter probably won't break 60% as I had expected. Version: 12 Maryland to Strong D, Nevada to Strong R, Rhode Island to Lean R (again). Version: 11 Maine to Strong D, South Carolina to Strong R. Version: 10 Iowa from Lean D to Tossup D, Alaska from Lean R to Strong R. Version: 9 Rhode Island back to Toss-up R in the wake of another poll puting it very close. Minnesota has been more consistent for Hatch lately, so it switches from tossup R to Tossup D. Version: 8 RI back to Lean R. I should really wait for another poll. Version: 7 Florida to Safe R, Rhode Island from Lean R back to toss-up R. Version: 6 Rhode Island from Toss-up R to Lean R after the M-D and Brown polls showed Carcieri surprisingly far ahead. Version: 5 Maryland: Toss-up D to Lean D. Version: 4 One change: Minnesota Toss-up D to Toss-up R. Version: 3 Two changes: South Carolina from Solid R to Lean R, and Michigan from Toss-up D to Lean D. Version: 2 Based on recent polls, Rhode Island reverts to the Republicans, and Minnesota switches to the Democrats. Texas is also less certain; as Strayhorn collapses, her support seems to be splitting between Bell and Friedman, both of whom have also been steadily gaining on Perry. This one could become interesting.
Version History Member Comments By: Cuivienen (I-NJ) - 2006-11-11 @ 20:01:03
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