Question:
Republican Primary Voters
(IF HAVE NOT ALREADY VOTED) I am going to read the names of some Republicans who are running for the Republican presidential nomination this year. For each, please tell me whether there would be a good chance, some chance or no chance that you would vote for that person in California’s presidential primary election. You may name as many or as few persons as you like as people you would be inclined to vote for. (NAMES AND TITLES OF CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) I am going to read back the names of the candidates you said you would have at least some chance of voting for. (NAMES OF CANDIDATES READ BACK) Of these persons, who would be your first choice if the California Republican primary election for President were being held today?
(IF ALREADY VOTED) For whom did you vote in the Republican presidential primary election – (NAMES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) or someone else?
Note: Voters interviewed prior to Wednesday's announcements that Democrat John Edwards and Republican Rudy Giuliani had withdrawn from their respective races, and who had initially stated that they intended to vote for Edwards or Giuliani, were called back in the final days of interviewing. In these callback interviews, voters were asked a second time whom they would support after being informed of their preferred candidate's withdrawal. Their answers were then reallocated to the candidates based on the information obtained during this second interview.

Trend of voter preferences in the California Republican primary for president (among likely voters in the CA Republican primary)
Late- January 2008
Mid-January 2008
December2007
October2007
August 2007
March 2007
John McCain
32%
22%
12%
12%
9%
24%
Mitt Romney
24
18
15
13
17
7
Mike Huckabee
13
11
17
4
1
3
Ron Paul
10
7
3
4
1
1
Others
6
21
35
45
52
50
Undecided
15
21
18
22
20
15

Poll Demographics

About this Poll
Sample Details
The findings relating to the California primary are based on a random sample survey of 511 likely voters in the Democratic primary election and 481 likely voters in the Republican primary. Survey results relating to the general election trial heats are based on random samples of either 569 or 579 likely voters in the November general election.
Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish January 25-February 1, 2008. Up to six attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period.
The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected at random from a statewide list of registered voters in California. After the completion of interviewing, the results were weighted to re-align the sample to characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Once a voter’s name and telephone number has been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews can be conducted on either the voter’s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file.
Sampling error estimates applicable to any probability-based survey depend on the sample size. The maximum sampling error for results based on the overall sample of 511 likely Democratic primary voters is +/- 4.5 percentage points, while results based from the overall sample of 481 likely Republican primary voters is +/- 4.6 percentage points. Sampling error estimates relating to the general election have a maximum sampling error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. The maximum sampling error is based on percentages +-in the middle of the sampling distribution (percentages around 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (percentages around 10% or around 90%) have a smaller margin of error. While there are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error, the overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. The maximum sampling error will be larger for analyses based on subgroups of the overall sample.