Question: (ASKED OF LIKELY GOP PRIMARY VOTERS) I am going to read the names of some Republicans who are running or considering running for the Republican presidential nomination next year. For each, please tell me whether there would be a good chance, some chance or no chance that you would vote for that person in California’s presidential primary election. You may name as many or as few persons as like as people you would be inclined to vote for. (NAMES AND TITLES OF CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER, ASKING:) Is there a good chance, some chance or no chance that you would vote for (NAME) in the California Republican primary for President?

Rudy Giuliani 29%
John McCain 21
Newt Gingrich 9
Fred Thompson 7
Mitt Romney 7
Duncan Hunter 3
Tom Tancredo 3
Mike Huckabee 2
Chuck Hagel 2
Sam Brownback 2
Ron Paul 1
Undecided 14

About this Poll
The findings in this report are based on a random sample survey of 1,093 registered voters statewide, of whom 315 can be considered likely voters in the 2008 California Republican primary and 802 voters who can be considered likely voters in the November general election. Interviewing was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish March 21-31, 2007. Up to eight attempts were made to reach and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. In order to cover a broad range of issues, the overall sample of likely voters in the November general election was divided into two approximately equal-sized subsamples of about 400 likely voters each to measure presidential preferences in that election.

The sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected at random from a statewide list of registered voters in California. When drawing samples from registration-based lists, The Field Poll stratifies the sample by region and age to insure that the poll includes adequate representations of registered voters across each major region of the state and across different age categories. Once a voter’s name and telephone number has been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews can be conducted on either the voter’s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing obtained from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the results are weighted slightly to Field Poll estimates of the demographic and regional characteristics of the state’s registered voter population.

Sampling error estimates applicable to any probability-based survey depend on sample size. According to statistical theory, 95% of the time results from findings based on the sample of likely voters in the Republican primary are subject to a sampling error of +/- 5.8 percentage points. Findings from the general election trial heats have a sampling error of +/- 5.0 percentage points. There are other possible sources of error in any survey other than sampling variability. Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, the sequencing of questions, the rigor with which sampling procedures are implemented, as well as other factors.