Hot take: much of Biden’s Arab American collapse is unrelated to 10/7

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just based off the 2022 results in places like Dearborn where Arabs swung hard right up and down the ballot despite Democrats overall doing well with the state. Many precincts in eastern Dearborn swung over 20 points right from 2020 Pres --> 2022 Gov.

Many Arab Americans are Conservative on issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights, and I think that was reflected in 2022. Prop 3 (abortion) lost in many of the precincts that gave over 80% in heavily Arab parts of Dearborn. The only reason they lurched so hard left was because of Bush in 2001. They were always sort of bound to revert.

This doesn't invalidate their swing - it could matter in a close election, but I tend to believe many are flipping for reasons beyond 10/7; 10/7 just accelerated things.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's definitely some truth to that, especially with regard to older Arabs no terminally online. However, it's not like they'll start voting R en masse, more likely is lower turnout and some 3rd party defections.

I generally think the impact of October 7 and its aftermath is vastly overestimated, and just related to Arab Americans, but in general.

2022 suggested a decent number flipping from D to R (or a bunch of new R Arab Americans who hadn't voted before showing up). Pretty sure there's nowhere else in the state where Dixon got more votes than Trump.



In this segment of Dearborn Dixon got outright more votes than Trump as Whitmer got less than half of Biden's vote total.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Arab Americans really dislike Biden so much, then by all means let them have President Trump.

You have to be a f'ing moron to think Trump would be some stalwart of Arab relations. You have to be an even bigger f'ing moron to not understand that by withdrawing support for Biden you are directly supporting Trump.

Americans have learned NO lessons from 2016.

And why isn’t it the fault of Joe Biden for being a better president. If Biden was a good president, his case for reelection would be easier

Part of it is he can’t change his entire rhetoric to appeal to one niche community. Biden isn’t going to become anti-lgbtq and anti-abortion just to get 90% of the vote in Hamtramack. In a county so large it’s just impossible to appease everyone after a certain point and you have to choose which groups you’re willing to risk decline in support in in favor of others.