I'm more interested in seeing how much Tlaib will overperform Biden in MI-12. I believe Biden for the most part did better than the squad members in their own districts in 2020 but that'll probably not be the case this time. The difference between her vote share and Biden's is the closest we'll get to seeing how much the I/P conflict has afftected the arab vote.
I think Biden will outrun quite a few (Omar especially has always had a massive third party vote in her district) but not Tlaib, yeah. Tlaib is going to get Stalin numbers in MI-12.