Hot take: much of Biden’s Arab American collapse is unrelated to 10/7

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just based off the 2022 results in places like Dearborn where Arabs swung hard right up and down the ballot despite Democrats overall doing well with the state. Many precincts in eastern Dearborn swung over 20 points right from 2020 Pres --> 2022 Gov.

Many Arab Americans are Conservative on issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights, and I think that was reflected in 2022. Prop 3 (abortion) lost in many of the precincts that gave over 80% in heavily Arab parts of Dearborn. The only reason they lurched so hard left was because of Bush in 2001. They were always sort of bound to revert.

This doesn't invalidate their swing - it could matter in a close election, but I tend to believe many are flipping for reasons beyond 10/7; 10/7 just accelerated things.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think it's different when it comes to Trump versus a more generic Republican. Them flipping isn't the concern, it's them not turning out or going third party.

[Sir Mohamed]

There's definitely some truth to that, especially with regard to older Arabs no terminally online. However, it's not like they'll start voting R en masse, more likely is lower turnout and some 3rd party defections.

I generally think the impact of October 7 and its aftermath is vastly overestimated, and just related to Arab Americans, but in general.

[RI]

Only terminally online people care and a few people of the relevant ethnicities about Israel/Palestine. Doesn't affect anyone else.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's definitely some truth to that, especially with regard to older Arabs no terminally online. However, it's not like they'll start voting R en masse, more likely is lower turnout and some 3rd party defections.

I generally think the impact of October 7 and its aftermath is vastly overestimated, and just related to Arab Americans, but in general.

2022 suggested a decent number flipping from D to R (or a bunch of new R Arab Americans who hadn't voted before showing up). Pretty sure there's nowhere else in the state where Dixon got more votes than Trump.



In this segment of Dearborn Dixon got outright more votes than Trump as Whitmer got less than half of Biden's vote total.

[Agafin]

I'm more interested in seeing how much Tlaib will overperform Biden in MI-12. I believe Biden for the most part did better than the squad members in their own districts in 2020 but that'll probably not be the case this time.  The difference between her vote share and Biden's is the closest we'll get to seeing how much the I/P conflict has afftected the arab vote.

[OSR stands with Israel]

A huge reason for the trend to the GOP that we have seen among Arabs , Asians and Hispanics is probably inevitable. Many are conservative but were democrats simply cause many moved here in the 1990s and associated the good times with Clinton who was a democrat and the bad times with Bush who was a Republican.

So by the Time they became citizens in the mid to late 2000s , they were democrats simply for that reason . Now that there has been 2 democratic presidents post Clinton and a Republican president post Bush that perception no longer applies so they are voting for the party that fits their belief more.

Anecdotally , the vast majority of Clinton - Trump voters I know were always pretty right wing but when I used to ask them why they voted democratic they said “when I moved here times were great under Clinton and the democrats, then Bush and the Republicans came in and ruined it”. By 2019 that really no longer applied and they moved solidly towards the GOP

[wnwnwn]

I'm more interested in seeing how much Tlaib will overperform Biden in MI-12. I believe Biden for the most part did better than the squad members in their own districts in 2020 but that'll probably not be the case this time.  The difference between her vote share and Biden's is the closest we'll get to seeing how much the I/P conflict has afftected the arab vote.

I suppose Tlaib will underperform Biden outside of Dearborn

[The Mikado]

I'm more interested in seeing how much Tlaib will overperform Biden in MI-12. I believe Biden for the most part did better than the squad members in their own districts in 2020 but that'll probably not be the case this time.  The difference between her vote share and Biden's is the closest we'll get to seeing how much the I/P conflict has afftected the arab vote.

I think Biden will outrun quite a few (Omar especially has always had a massive third party vote in her district) but not Tlaib, yeah. Tlaib is going to get Stalin numbers in MI-12.

[Inmate Trump]

If Arab Americans really dislike Biden so much, then by all means let them have President Trump.

You have to be a f'ing moron to think Trump would be some stalwart of Arab relations. You have to be an even bigger f'ing moron to not understand that by withdrawing support for Biden you are directly supporting Trump.

Americans have learned NO lessons from 2016.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Arab Americans really dislike Biden so much, then by all means let them have President Trump.

You have to be a f'ing moron to think Trump would be some stalwart of Arab relations. You have to be an even bigger f'ing moron to not understand that by withdrawing support for Biden you are directly supporting Trump.

Americans have learned NO lessons from 2016.

And why isn’t it the fault of Joe Biden for being a better president. If Biden was a good president, his case for reelection would be easier

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A huge reason for the trend to the GOP that we have seen among Arabs , Asians and Hispanics is probably inevitable. Many are conservative but were democrats simply cause many moved here in the 1990s and associated the good times with Clinton who was a democrat and the bad times with Bush who was a Republican.

So by the Time they became citizens in the mid to late 2000s , they were democrats simply for that reason . Now that there has been 2 democratic presidents post Clinton and a Republican president post Bush that perception no longer applies so they are voting for the party that fits their belief more.

Anecdotally , the vast majority of Clinton - Trump voters I know were always pretty right wing but when I used to ask them why they voted democratic they said “when I moved here times were great under Clinton and the democrats, then Bush and the Republicans came in and ruined it”. By 2019 that really no longer applied and they moved solidly towards the GOP

Biden isn't collapsing did you see the Marist polls and we outvoted Rs in PA 950 to 750 K

Biden isn't blue states and he is making NC competetive and TX S competitive.

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Arab Americans really dislike Biden so much, then by all means let them have President Trump.

You have to be a f'ing moron to think Trump would be some stalwart of Arab relations. You have to be an even bigger f'ing moron to not understand that by withdrawing support for Biden you are directly supporting Trump.

Americans have learned NO lessons from 2016.

And why isn’t it the fault of Joe Biden for being a better president. If Biden was a good president, his case for reelection would be easier

Part of it is he can’t change his entire rhetoric to appeal to one niche community. Biden isn’t going to become anti-lgbtq and anti-abortion just to get 90% of the vote in Hamtramack. In a county so large it’s just impossible to appease everyone after a certain point and you have to choose which groups you’re willing to risk decline in support in in favor of others.

[President Johnson]

I guess there's some truth in it, but I woder why it just happened now. The same with conservative Hispanics. It's not like Democrats embrace social liberalism since yesterday. Even if they base their voting patterns on economic policy, not much has changed between the parties in a few short years.

What might also be a factor that some Arab Americans and Hispanics (especially Cubans) actually like Trump's strongman attitidude and would prefer an autocratic ruler. It's not a popular thing to admit in public or even discuss it, but in my view that's at least part of the explanation.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I guess there's some truth in it, but I woder why it just happened now. The same with conservative Hispanics. It's not like Democrats embrace social liberalism since yesterday. Even if they base their voting patterns on economic policy, not much has changed between the parties in a few short years.

What might also be a factor that some Arab Americans and Hispanics (especially Cubans) actually like Trump's strongman attitidude and would prefer an autocratic ruler. It's not a popular thing to admit in public or even discuss it, but in my view that's at least part of the explanation.

Nah, A lot of it is as time passes by memories of the 1990s fade so conservative Hispanics/Asians/Arabs have no reason to vote democratic. Clinton’s second term in particular made many immigrants like the democrats at first and Bush’s second term made many of them become democratic voters in the first election many were were eligible

So really I think much of this was inevitable rather than anything else

[President Johnson]

I guess there's some truth in it, but I woder why it just happened now. The same with conservative Hispanics. It's not like Democrats embrace social liberalism since yesterday. Even if they base their voting patterns on economic policy, not much has changed between the parties in a few short years.

What might also be a factor that some Arab Americans and Hispanics (especially Cubans) actually like Trump's strongman attitidude and would prefer an autocratic ruler. It's not a popular thing to admit in public or even discuss it, but in my view that's at least part of the explanation.

Nah, A lot of it is as time passes by memories of the 1990s fade so conservative Hispanics/Asians/Arabs have no reason to vote democratic. Clinton’s second term in particular made many immigrants like the democrats at first and Bush’s second term made many of them become democratic voters in the first election many were were eligible

So really I think much of this was inevitable rather than anything else

I doubt this has much to with Clinton and Dubya, whose presidencies are many years in the past. Especially in today's world, 15, 20 or 25 years is many, many, many lifetimes in politics. When it comes to immigrants, I guess it's a missconception all of them are in favor of increased immigration. Some are even more opposed to illegal immigration because they followed the rules and think others should as well.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I guess there's some truth in it, but I woder why it just happened now. The same with conservative Hispanics. It's not like Democrats embrace social liberalism since yesterday. Even if they base their voting patterns on economic policy, not much has changed between the parties in a few short years.

What might also be a factor that some Arab Americans and Hispanics (especially Cubans) actually like Trump's strongman attitidude and would prefer an autocratic ruler. It's not a popular thing to admit in public or even discuss it, but in my view that's at least part of the explanation.

Nah, A lot of it is as time passes by memories of the 1990s fade so conservative Hispanics/Asians/Arabs have no reason to vote democratic. Clinton’s second term in particular made many immigrants like the democrats at first and Bush’s second term made many of them become democratic voters in the first election many were were eligible

So really I think much of this was inevitable rather than anything else

I doubt this has much to with Clinton and Dubya, whose presidencies are many years in the past. Especially in today's world, 15, 20 or 25 years is many, many, many lifetimes in politics. When it comes to immigrants, I guess it's a missconception all of them are in favor of increased immigration. Some are even more opposed to illegal immigration because they followed the rules and think others should as well.

Well many of them first started voting GOP in 2020 which is when memories of both their presidencies began to fade .

2008 which was the first election when many immigrants who moved in the 1990s could vote was obviously effected by the Bush factor given he was the incumbent

2012 was just 4 years after Bush and Obama along with making Romney seem like this super elitist also pushed how he was the 3rd term of Bush

2016 the democratic nominee was the wife of Bill Clinton


So 2020 really was the first election where a Bush or Clinton hasn’t been a factor in decades

[Badger]

If Arab Americans really dislike Biden so much, then by all means let them have President Trump.

You have to be a f'ing moron to think Trump would be some stalwart of Arab relations. You have to be an even bigger f'ing moron to not understand that by withdrawing support for Biden you are directly supporting Trump.

Americans have learned NO lessons from 2016.

And why isn’t it the fault of Joe Biden for being a better president. If Biden was a good president, his case for reelection would be easier

Trump being by any remotely reasonable objective standard a better present than Biden?? Ay lmao.

Sounds like Smeagol osr who was principal enough not to vote for Trump in 2016 has been taken over by conserveacord Gollum osr

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Arab Americans really dislike Biden so much, then by all means let them have President Trump.

You have to be a f'ing moron to think Trump would be some stalwart of Arab relations. You have to be an even bigger f'ing moron to not understand that by withdrawing support for Biden you are directly supporting Trump.

Americans have learned NO lessons from 2016.

And why isn’t it the fault of Joe Biden for being a better president. If Biden was a good president, his case for reelection would be easier

Trump being by any remotely reasonable objective standard a better present than Biden?? Ay lmao.

Sounds like Smeagol osr who was principal enough not to vote for Trump in 2016 has been taken over by conserveacord Gollum osr

Uh all i was saying is that case would be easier to make if Biden actually did a good job as president.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Arab Americans really dislike Biden so much, then by all means let them have President Trump.

You have to be a f'ing moron to think Trump would be some stalwart of Arab relations. You have to be an even bigger f'ing moron to not understand that by withdrawing support for Biden you are directly supporting Trump.

Americans have learned NO lessons from 2016.

And why isn’t it the fault of Joe Biden for being a better president. If Biden was a good president, his case for reelection would be easier

Trump being by any remotely reasonable objective standard a better present than Biden?? Ay lmao.

Sounds like Smeagol osr who was principal enough not to vote for Trump in 2016 has been taken over by conserveacord Gollum osr

Uh all i was saying is that case would be easier to make if Biden actually did a good job as president.

Marist has it +3 Biden he is doing a good job but it's Covid still and inflation and Trump had low Approvals too

Biden promised to end Covid he didn't these are polls not voted

Users act like Trump had stellar Approval too he didn't