Israel-Gaza war

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Be weary of reports Israel killed this or that major Hamas figure.  They’ve been trying to spin various things as taking out major targets to act like they’re taking out a new major target every 1-2 days, but it is basically Israeli propaganda.  

For example, one of Haniyeh’s sons was a very low mid-tier guy in Hamas and the other two were basically bottom-level foot soldiers.  Yes, they’re Haniyeh’s sons, but none were being groomed for even upper mid-tier leadership, so this was nothing special.  Certainly not a good enough reason to turn his young grandchildren into collateral.  Yet this is being billed by some as some sort of major symbolic victory.  Similarly, a few days ago Israel took out a generic mid-level guy in Hezbollah and certain pro-Israel online media outlets have been trying to cast him as some top-tier once in a generation brilliant intelligence operative.

If someone notable in Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Resistance Committees, Hezbollah, PFLP, DFLP (some major Judean People’s Front vs. People’s Front of Judea action going on with those last two), I’ll post it here.  No one notable in Hamas has been killed since Israel took out the target of the most recent Al-Shaifa Hospital Complex raid.  

At some point, I’m going to make a running list of the leadership/notable guys in these groups and their status along with continuous updates so people can see how much progress Israel is or isn’t making without sifting through pages and pages of this thread.

[CumbrianLefty]

The hostages may be dead, Hamas is definitely vile enough to kill them. Very possible. But why? They have every incentive to keep them alive, no valid reason to kill them.

Sadly, self-sabotage (and sabotage of the entire community they claim to represent) has been a key trait of groups like this for decades. Not just among the Palestinian cause, either - terrorists really seem to believe that if they hit a powerful nation painfully enough, they'll just surrender.

they wont they will go down fighting they need to take as a many civilian to make israel look like the bad guys

It has to be said that Israel often don't do such a bad job of that themselves, tbf.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Recently a member of this forum brought up "blood libel" in a context where that appellation wasn't appropriate, so it was interesting that this story broke soon after. If you replaced the proper nouns in this article with any historical time period in which blood libel atrocities occurred, it would be identical, right down to the missing child pretense for the violence.

JERUSALEM -- Dozens of Israeli settlers stormed into a Palestinian village in the Israeli-occupied West Bank on Friday, shooting and setting houses and cars on fire. The rampage killed a Palestinian man and wounded 25 others, Palestinian health officials said.

The violence was the latest in an escalation in the West Bank that has accompanied Israel's war in the Gaza Strip. An Israeli rights group said the settlers were searching for a missing 14-year-old boy from their settlement. After the rampage, Israeli troops said they were still searching for the teen.

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/israeli-settlers-rampage-west-bank-village-killing-1-109173465

FWIW the teen's body was later found in the settlement he disappeared from. The IDF attributes it to a "terror attack" but the investigation is ongoing.

[Comrade Funk]

Settlers will face minimal (if any) consequences for their BS. This is what an apartheid system does. Total subjugation funded by the US Government. But at least Joe Biden said they had to change. That'll stop Israel.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Isn’t the current governing coalition in Israel dependent on staunchly pro-settler parties anyway?

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Isn’t the current governing coalition in Israel dependent on staunchly pro-settler parties anyway?

Not only that, but a pro-settler lunatic (Ben Gvir) is the current security minister. I read multiple accounts at the time suggesting his focus on directing defense resources towards the facilitation of illegal settlements was part of the intelligence breakdown that led to the 10/7 attack. Since then he's done nothing but inflame tensions and go on a bizarre crusade against gun laws.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

FWIW also it's unfair to paint all Israelis as supporters of settler violence. There is a lot of opposition to illegal settlements even amongst the Israeli right. If for no other reason that they inherently create more security risks and aren't really necessary for anything but nationalist/expansionist purposes.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Iran is launching drones against Israel 😒
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1779232234542641600?s=12

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Iran is launching drones against Israel 😒
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1779232234542641600?s=12

Sounds like the US and Israel are on the case. It'll take hours for them to arrive and there will be plenty of time to shoot them down.

If I thought Iran were rational actors, I would say this was a very smart way to "escalate" without ensuring a massive Israeli response.

[President Johnson]

Iran is launching drones against Israel 😒
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1779232234542641600?s=12

I hope Israel's military will be able to shot them down, every single one.

To all Israeli posters (and literally any Israeli): Please stay safe.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Iran is launching drones against Israel 😒
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1779232234542641600?s=12

I hope Israel's military will be able to shot them down, every single one.

To all Israeli posters (and literally any Israeli): Please stay safe.

This.

[Storr]

"Here it comes.

Unfortunately, even if all drones and missiles are intercepted by Israeli air defence and aircraft, it is highly unlikely that this will go unanswered by Israel.

To all the “Unfortnately?” comments:

Yes, Israel being forced to respond in an increasing destructive tit-for-tat that eventually ends in a regional war with at least one nuclear power is what I call “unfortunate”."

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1779241211204702407

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

"Here it comes.

Unfortunately, even if all drones and missiles are intercepted by Israeli air defence and aircraft, it is highly unlikely that this will go unanswered by Israel.

To all the “Unfortnately?” comments:

Yes, Israel being forced to respond in an increasing destructive tit-for-tat that eventually ends in a regional war with at least one nuclear power is what I call “unfortunate”."

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1779241211204702407

Yeah, this is a big part of why I think the US is making clear it's getting directly involved to protect Israel - if it can minimize the attack on Israel, it stands the biggest chance of keeping Israel from retaliating heavily.

[jaichind]

Jerusalem Post messed up the headline on their website for while before fixing it

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The drones are just the first wave to test air defenses, the cruise missiles and ballistic missiles just launched. The Houthis also just launched a drone-missile attack and it seems likely that Hezbollah will start their own barrage pretty soon.

[GoTfan]

"Here it comes.

Unfortunately, even if all drones and missiles are intercepted by Israeli air defence and aircraft, it is highly unlikely that this will go unanswered by Israel.

To all the “Unfortnately?” comments:

Yes, Israel being forced to respond in an increasing destructive tit-for-tat that eventually ends in a regional war with at least one nuclear power is what I call “unfortunate”."

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1779241211204702407

Yeah, this is a big part of why I think the US is making clear it's getting directly involved to protect Israel - if it can minimize the attack on Israel, it stands the biggest chance of keeping Israel from retaliating heavily.

I hope you're right. The last thing that any Israeli or Palestinian civilians need right now is a regional war between the two bully boys of the Middle East.

[CumbrianLefty]

Iran is launching drones against Israel 😒
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1779232234542641600?s=12

I hope Israel's military will be able to shot them down, every single one.

To all Israeli posters (and literally any Israeli): Please stay safe.

Not quite every single one was shot down, but close.

With some help from Israel's friends. Who they should now listen to.

[jaichind]

The ratio of cost between what Iran threw out there and what Israel and the USA had to throw up there to stop them must be very heavy in favor of Iran from a military hardware ROI point of view.   Iran basically made Israel and the USA burn a lot of cash yesterday. 

The USA is backing down when it comes to Houthis, offering to take them off the terrorist list if Red Sea attacks cease, mostly for that reason, military hardware ROI and cash burn.

It seems this is a good place for Israel and Iran to stop but I suspect for political reasons Israel cannot let this slide and there will be more escalation.  Iran's strategy should be similar to the  Houthis: make Israel and the USA burn more cash at a much higher rate it will burn cash.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Iran is launching drones against Israel 😒
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1779232234542641600?s=12

I hope Israel's military will be able to shot them down, every single one.

To all Israeli posters (and literally any Israeli): Please stay safe.

Not quite every single one was shot down, but close.

With some help from Israel's friends. Who they should now listen to.

That appears to be the Israel/US spin, which in turn will serve to give Israel a face-saving reason not to escalate, which in turn is a good thing. But I don't think that "everything was shot down" narrative will survive into the medium term (by which time 99.9% of the public will no longer be paying attention).

From what I can tell, the important takeaways from this are:

-the Iranians only targeted military installations (Israeli airbases & air defense)

-the Israelis had advance warning of the strike, and/or it was extremely precise
(no secondary explosions at either airbase implies that either the IDF got everything explosive into bunkers, and/or that the Iranians intentionally hit nothing that would cause a secondary explosion)

-Israeli long-range interceptor launchers ran out of missiles before the Iranians finished shooting

-Israel (and the US) probably spent about ten times more failing to completely stop the attack than Iran did launching it

-the Iranian military demonstrated that it possesses the knowledge and ability to overwhelm US/Israeli air defense and precisely strike targets of choice within Israel (or elsewhere within range)

This appears very much like the sort of thing the United States might do, if a hostile nation hit one of our embassies with an airstrike.

[CumbrianLefty]

Iran is launching drones against Israel 😒
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1779232234542641600?s=12

I hope Israel's military will be able to shot them down, every single one.

To all Israeli posters (and literally any Israeli): Please stay safe.

Not quite every single one was shot down, but close.

With some help from Israel's friends. Who they should now listen to.

That appears to be the Israel/US spin, which in turn will serve to give Israel a face-saving reason not to escalate, which in turn is a good thing. But I don't think that "everything was shot down" narrative will survive into the medium term (by which time 99.9% of the public will no longer be paying attention)

I didn't say everything, but nearly everything.

Which does still appear to be the case, pretty much.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Six months today.

https://twitter.com/Hind_Gaza/status/1776211401297609030

Hey, quick question, what happened six months ago?

Does it exclude the atrocity happening in Gaza? All the innocent lives lost, all the aid blockage being delivered,  at a point where we are witnessing not only a genocide but a famine. This so-called war is not a war, you can't call it that when the other side has no military presence to fight against a large militaristic force backed by some of the most powerful nations on Earth. The consensus by organizations as the United Nations is that the events circulating in Faza consented a genocide.

You have never once expressed sadness at the act of genocide perpetrated against the Jewish people six months ago, and memorializing its anniversary as the "start of the genocide" is in fact obscene genocide denial.

His signature is a portrait of the late Marxist President of Burkina Faso.  I don't expect much regard from such quarters.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The hostages may be dead, Hamas is definitely vile enough to kill them. Very possible. But why? They have every incentive to keep them alive, no valid reason to kill them.

Sadly, self-sabotage (and sabotage of the entire community they claim to represent) has been a key trait of groups like this for decades. Not just among the Palestinian cause, either - terrorists really seem to believe that if they hit a powerful nation painfully enough, they'll just surrender.

Hamas says it doesn't have 40 living Israeli hostages necessary for ceasefire deal

A Hamas official has reportedly said the terror group won't commit to releasing 40 living hostages but could commit to 40 hostages total, which would suggest some would be dead. The Israeli military and the prime minister's office wouldn't state publicly their estimates on how many hostages remain alive.

This is not the time to tell me how awful Bibi is.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Hamas spurns latest hostage deal proposal, demands permanent ceasefire

Hamas poured cold water Saturday on the latest proposal for a temporary ceasefire in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages it holds, insisting it wants a complete end to the war.

Israel said the rejection of the proposal shows that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is not interested in a humanitarian agreement, and is instead trying to take advantage of tensions with Iran that boiled into open warfare as Tehran fired hundreds of drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles at Israel overnight.

Never let a crisis go to waste, eh?

I think it's fair to wonder if all the hostages are dead.

What Hamas wants is a free pass for hundreds of murders.  On top of their October 7 death toll.  Goalpost moving like this never augurs well.  If the hostages are alive, they could confirm that right now . . . if they wanted to.

[CumbrianLefty]

This is not the time to tell me how awful Bibi is.

Au contraire, there is never a bad time to do this.

The weekend was another example of his failure, after all.

[jaichind]

This is mostly making the same point as me

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1779518256845554043

The ratio of cost between what Iran threw out there and what Israel and the USA had to throw up there to stop them must be very heavy in favor of Iran from a military hardware ROI point of view.   Iran basically made Israel and the USA burn a lot of cash yesterday. 

The USA is backing down when it comes to Houthis, offering to take them off the terrorist list if Red Sea attacks cease, mostly for that reason, military hardware ROI and cash burn.

It seems this is a good place for Israel and Iran to stop but I suspect for political reasons Israel cannot let this slide and there will be more escalation.  Iran's strategy should be similar to the  Houthis: make Israel and the USA burn more cash at a much higher rate it will burn cash.