Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,896
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2014, 06:23:22 PM » |
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Notable Races
Alaska: Sullivan is a decent candidate and Alaska is a red state, but Begich is a great fit for the state and seems to be running a very effective campaign. D HOLD. Arkansas: Cotton is once again leading in the polls, as Pryor's bump has faded. Arkansas is moving rightward rapidly, and while Pryor is not a bad candidate, this is an R PICKUP. Colorado: Gardner has made this a race, to his credit. However, Udall should be able to pull away and hold on. D HOLD. Georgia: Back when the outcome of the primary was unclear, I had this as a D pickup. But this has essentially turned into a worst-case scenario for Democrats, with Perdue winning the Republican nomination. Nunn is a very strong candidate, but if she can't break 50% in November, then a pickup is unlikely. R HOLD. Iowa: Ernst has been doing very well here, and actually leads in the polling now. I think Braley will survive in the end, but this is one of my shakiest calls. D HOLD. Kentucky: Probably the Democrats' best chance for a pickup. Grimes is a very strong candidate, and is running a very good race. However, McConnell has survived tough elections before, and has a slight advantage overall. R HOLD. Louisiana: This is probably the toughest race to call. At first glance, Landrieu should be able to win, having won tough races before, but the political climate has become even more hostile, and so it seems like her luck has finally run out. Like in Georgia, her best chance to win is in the initial November election. If the race proceeds to a runoff, Cassidy will most likely win. R PICKUP. Michigan: Land is certainly a strong candidate, but Peters' polling lead has been consistent. Michigan is still a light blue state, and for that this race is a D HOLD. Montana: With Walsh's withdrawal, the possibility of a D hold has evaporated entirely. Unless Schweitzer changes his mind and gets nominated, this is an R PICKUP. North Carolina: Tillis seems to be performing better than expected here. He's closing the poll gap, but I think that in the end Hagan will hold on. D HOLD. South Dakota: Rounds is a solid candidate, and Pressler's entry hasn't really affected the race as much as expected. R PICKUP. West Virginia: Tennant is a strong candidate, but Capito leads significantly in the polls, and it doesn't seem like anything will change. After years of voting R presidentially, Republicans will finally succeed downballot. R PICKUP.
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