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Predictions2024 Senatorial Predictions - dgentile (G-NJ) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2023-12-17 Version:1

Prediction Map
dgentile MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dgentile MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep11
 
Ind2
 
Non16
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind2
 
Tos2
 
Non16
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+20+20-1-115419+1
Rep0+1+1-10-182100
Ind000-10-1202-1


Predicted Senate Control (119th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic21021
Republican11011
Independent202
 pie

Analysis

Scott is not popular in FL. Abortion referendum drives D. Turnout.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 252
P 2020 President 51/56 37/56 88/112 78.6% pie 2 168 480T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 1 331 101T423
P 2016 President 42/56 25/56 67/112 59.8% pie 2 26 597T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 15/34 45/68 66.2% pie 1 96 277T362
P 2012 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 2 1 508T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 34 144T343
P 2010 Senate 26/37 16/37 42/74 56.8% pie 4 48 359T456
P 2008 President 54/56 35/56 89/112 79.5% pie 5 12 247T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 29 117T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 3 77 232T465
P 2004 President 46/56 24/56 70/112 62.5% pie 5 76 1629T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 426/485 263/485 689/970 71.0% pie



Arizona1 California1 California1 California1 California1 Connecticut1 Connecticut1 Delaware1 Florida1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Hawaii1 Indiana1 Maine1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Maryland1 Massachusetts1 Michigan1 Michigan1 Minnesota1 Mississippi1 Missouri1 Montana1 Nebraska1 Nebraska2 Nevada1 New Jersey1 New Mexico1 New York1 New York1 North Dakota1 Ohio1 Pennsylvania1 Rhode Island1 Tennessee1 Texas1 Utah1 Vermont1 Virginia1 Virginia1 Washington1 Washington1 Washington1 West Virginia1 Wisconsin1 Wisconsin1 Wyoming1

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