13 Keys to the White House (leaning) (user search)
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  13 Keys to the White House (leaning) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 13 Keys to the White House (leaning)  (Read 813 times)
Randy Marsh
Jr. Member
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Posts: 297
United States


« on: April 28, 2024, 02:45:51 PM »
13 keys really strikes me as overfitting past data and expecting it to hold when all you did was fit noise (with malleable subjective keys, too). Doesn't help that number of keys doesn't seem to be correlated at all to margin of victory.

But his track record is exemplary so I don't think we can write it off.
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Randy Marsh
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 297
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2024, 09:08:17 PM »
Quote from: SWE on April 29, 2024, 06:57:46 AM
Quote from: Randy Marsh on April 28, 2024, 02:45:51 PM
13 keys really strikes me as overfitting past data and expecting it to hold when all you did was fit noise (with malleable subjective keys, too). Doesn't help that number of keys doesn't seem to be correlated at all to margin of victory.

But his track record is exemplary so I don't think we can write it off.
His record is 8 for 9, and that 8 includes freebies like 1996 and 2008. Impressive would be pushing it with that sample size, let alone exemplary
8/9 is better than polls did

Who did better?
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