13 Keys to the White House (leaning)

[TML]

I feel like the first key should be true since Dems picked up senate seats and governorships in 2022. Or at least neutral since 2022 was more of a draw for both parties.

According to his standards, the first key is strictly limited to the House, and would only be true if the net result from the first two House election cycles of the term is a net gain for the incumbent WH Party (which was clearly not the case this term).

[TML]

I'm not sure the military failure key is false. Afghanistan was messy of course, but the public overall wanted to get out and end the two decades long war.

Indeed, Lichtman explicitly stated that Afghanistan is not on the minds of most people nowadays, so he wouldn’t count that against Biden.

[TML]

I'm not sure the military failure key is false. Afghanistan was messy of course, but the public overall wanted to get out and end the two decades long war.

Indeed, Lichtman explicitly stated that Afghanistan is not on the minds of most people nowadays, so he wouldn’t count that against Biden.

If he wants to not count Afghanistan, he needs to take back turning the key against Ford in '76 over the fall of Saigon. I mean the two things were pretty similar.

If the Afghan withdrawal had happened in 2023, I'd be inclined to agree with you. Likewise, Ford would have won that key if Saigon had fallen in 1973 or 1974.

[TML]

I would like to know what the "major policy change" is that the article confidently states as TRUE is?

I‘ll give you a hint: what were the two high-profile bills passed during the 117th Congress?