OR-CD-05-DEM PRIM

[NOVA Green]

So... the Oregon Primary Season is coming up.

We currently have a PUB Chavez-DeRemer currently representing us in the US House in what was a +9% Biden district.

Me and my wife are both REG DEMs who voted to oust Schrader during the DEM PRIM of '22 and instead went with McLeod-Skinner, after our DEM REP had betrayed us on critical "Human Infrastructure" votes.

Now naturally we want to be represented by a DEM in Congress again (Although granted Chavez-DeRemer has not been one of the "cray cray" PUBs in the House).

Key question will naturally involving a mixture of electability versus principle as well as political geography.

My initial thought is that McLeod-Skinner is perceived negatively by many in the district, which after all was carved up when we got a new CD after the 2020 census.

Trying to combine everything from Bend to Clackamas County PDX burbs and rurals, take most of Linn County and toss it into the mix, as well as some extremely heavily PUB parts of Eastern Marion naturally creates a new CD, with a bunch of contrasts...

McLeod-Skinner being from the Bend area, which after all has a bit of a "crunchy granola" feel to many others in the district is probably not helpful to win the terrain where after all only a relatively small % of voters within the district are from Deschutes County.

My thought is that Bynum is not only perhaps more electable than McLeod-Skinner, but is also likely as equally progressive on many key Democratic party platforms.

She will likely perform much better than Skinner in the DEM belt of NW ClackCo, including in the PDX swing Exurbs of Happy Valley, as well as quite possibly performing better in the heavily PUB Rurals of Clackamas, Marion, and Linn County.

Naturally Albany is ground zero to watch considering that it was a narrow Biden 2020 win, where he even exceeded Obama '08 margins within the City in a city which votes quite a few points to the Right when it comes to overall OR PRES Election numbers.

Thoughts Atlas Hive?

[MargieCat]

Bynum would be a solid Democratic vote, and I imagine she possibly joins the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

She has a history of defeating Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

Democratic leadership seems to have a genuine preference for Bynum. I believe Hakeem Jeffries even recruited her to run. The generally don't weigh in on open primaries, but they weighed in even before Lynn Peterson dropped out, if I'm not mistaking.

My feelings are that if the DCCC and Democratic leadership feel this strongly about it, they may have a good reason. They have may done oppo research and don't feel confident in JMS's ability to win.

Bynum would also be the first African American ever elected to represent Oregon to congress, if I'm not mistaking.

[SilverStar]

Vote Bynum!

[Canis]

I heard from some of my relatives in Oregon that there was a feeling that the DCCC abandoned JCMS and that she would have won had they invested slightly more in her race, she did lose by only about 7k votes. I personally don't want to tell you how to vote but id encourage you to vote for the canddiate you feel most closely alligns with your beliefs and would represent you best in congress. Knowing what little I do about the candidates in the race id back JCMs. But I don't really know much about Bynum

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

why do you talk/type like that?

[Morning in Atlas]

Bynum is great. Peterson was a cuck whining about Coming Together to Solve Problems (for corporations).

Very glad to see the party evolve from "hurr durr centrist = electabull".

[NOVA Green]

why do you talk/type like that?

Who are you talking about?

Me or someone else?

If you are talking about me (Which I must assume you likely are) then tons of time in academia in both undergrad and grad school, plus tons of chops in MNC Corp America, where I frequently got advised that my emails were way too long and way too detailed, while meanwhile can create brilliant presentations from db extracts, and then present the data to Senior MGMT.

Had to cut my academic style papers down to acronyms, since after all in the business world they are all over the place, just as they are in Poly-Sci world.

Sometimes in my personal life tossing in a bit of music and images into my SM existence (Such as Atlas) is nice as well, since it breaks up the "Wall of Text", where after all much of Atlas is "dumbed down" where people simply post one or two line posts, especially with the younger set on the scene these dayz.

Been around the block over the years... and remember Atlas Nation in the Rare Old times....

[Epaminondas]

Must be nice to be in a swing district, you're among the privileged few whose vote actually matters.
Would you say Chavez-DeRemer has bucked her party enough to build some goodwill in your district?

why do you talk/type like that?

Who are you talking about?
Me or someone else?

Ignore him, Nova, we like your soliloquies, Shaula just hasn't found his place in this world and constantly attention-whores.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

why do you talk/type like that?

Who are you talking about?
Me or someone else?

Ignore him, Nova, we like your soliloquies, Shaula just hasn't found his place in this world and constantly attention-whores.

Imagine this with the same cadence as the State Farm commercial pictured.

That said, I agree that NOVA Green's posting style is fine.

[The Mikado]

why do you talk/type like that?

It's how he's always posted. Atlas is home to many very distinctive writing styles, including NOVA Green's charming style that suggests he's always mildly high but still very sharp.

[NOVA Green]

why do you talk/type like that?

Who are you talking about?
Me or someone else?

Ignore him, Nova, we like your soliloquies, Shaula just hasn't found his place in this world and constantly attention-whores.

Imagine this with the same cadence as the State Farm commercial pictured.

That said, I agree that NOVA Green's posting style is fine.

Thanks Peebs!

Haven't seen you around in a bit on Atlas so get it when checking the posters profile and history.

Whew... I thought maybe somehow, somewhere, I had insulted Australian Posters as I have occasionally in the past inadvertently over a few individuals who were more supportive of US Military Actions overseas than US posters.

I did not recall ever having any issues with Shaula (Let alone remembering any of her posts), so was a bit surprised to see her "go off" so to speak on my posting style.

So I guess the "Teenage Girl" was not a representation of me, but rather of a "portrait of an artist as a young woman"?

Regardless it seemed to be quite a bit off-topic and was extremely confused.

I get that Atlas is a bit liberal and would hate to report a poster for being off topic or thread derailment, but will accept it as genuine intellectual curiosity, so no harm no foul there, but perhaps best brought up elsewhere?

[NOVA Green]

Must be nice to be in a swing district, you're among the privileged few whose vote actually matters.
Would you say Chavez-DeRemer has bucked her party enough to build some goodwill in your district?

Honestly this new district is so it's difficult to get enough data points.

I suspect that an overwhelming majority of GE voters in the district have very little idea of who she is or what her political voting patterns have been, until it becomes more closely defined towards the GE and the DEM opponent is selected.

Sure as a first term Congresswoman, who sits on multiple committees has given multiple "Earmarks" to Bend...

Also got some props for sponsoring the H.R. 3895: Fiscal Year 2023 Veterans Affairs Major Medical Facility Authorization Act, which should help her, especially in Linn County, which has the highest % of MIL Vets in the district.

Now, she might well be a casualty of Female Reproductive Rights issues in one of the most pro-choice States in the Country, in a district which has overwhelmingly supported Abortion Rights over many decades of Citizen Initiatives designed to strip those rights from Oregonians.

Her position on abortions naturally has opened up a major avenue of attack against her in what is an overwhelming Pro-Choice State and CD.

https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2023/07/20/chavez-deremer-pledges-to-oppose-abortion-funding-bans-then-votes-to-block-military-reimbursement/

https://thehill.com/changemakers/4346400-the-hills-changemakers-rep-lori-chavez-deremer-r-ore/

https://sbaprolife.org/newsroom/press-releases/leading-pro-life-group-slams-rep-chavez-deremer-calls-on-gop-house-to-pass-no-taxpayer-funding-for-abortion-act

Sure, could be a scene where many voters in the district recognize that OR Reproductive Rights are safe, and instead vote on other items such as economy, immigration, or inflation.

Gun Nuts are gonna be gun nuts, and although I know quite a few of them from the factory, this will be much less of an issue in the CD-05 breadbaskets of ClackCo, Deschutes County, and Albany, but could be a bit of an issue in the rurals of SE ClackCo, Marion, and LinnCo, but now that we passed the Gun Restriction ballot initiative back in '22 which is still caught up in courts, might be less of a mobilization factor in '24, especially since she is trying to play to the swingy PDX Exurbs as well as Metro Bend, etc...

[Kamala's side hoe]

I might do another more in-depth answer sometime after next Tuesday, but I think Representative Chavez-DeRemer's odds of winning reelection are at least 40%. Don't have any real firsthand on-the-ground knowledge of any part of OR-5 beyond simply driving through on the highways/across touristy areas, and my impression of matches who live in the Clackamas County portion of the district.

I don't think the 2023 elections were a good barometer for this. Leaving my projection unchanged for now.

Largely agree with NOVA Green. I can see this race going either way.