13 Keys to the White House (leaning)

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Keys2WhiteHouse/status/1783297414767820900

https://twitter.com/PeterD58345/status/1784442276367769792

[GAinDC]

How many keys does an incumbent need to have to be a favorite for reelection?

[American2020]

How many keys does an incumbent need to have to be a favorite for reelection?

8 True
5 False

[GAinDC]

I feel like the first key should be true since Dems picked up senate seats and governorships in 2022. Or at least neutral since 2022 was more of a draw for both parties.

[TML]

I feel like the first key should be true since Dems picked up senate seats and governorships in 2022. Or at least neutral since 2022 was more of a draw for both parties.

According to his standards, the first key is strictly limited to the House, and would only be true if the net result from the first two House election cycles of the term is a net gain for the incumbent WH Party (which was clearly not the case this term).

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

My obligatory 13 keys post:

They "seem" to work because they're arbitrary, and because Lichtman changes his definition of what he's predicting depending on who wins. The Thirteen Keys are the equivalent of a confidence trick dressed up in the guise of academia.

The first six keys have explicit, testable definitions. They give the impression of a rigorous, mathematically definable process. The remaining seven keys  are completely arbitrary, lacking any testable definition, but cloaked in "you can trust me, I'm a professional" rhetoric to disguise that fact. Seven keys are also the number needed to decide a winner.

Originally, Lichtman said his Keys predicted the popular vote winner. He dropped that for his 2000 predictions, simply saying Gore would "win". After Gore lost, Lichtman claimed he was, as per his original work, just predicting the popular vote. After Trump lost the popular popular vote, Lichtman reversed himself, claiming that he was now predicting the "elected" President.

The Keys real title should be "well-informed smart guy guesses who will be President". If he was using a crystal ball or watching the flights of birds as a prop, everyone would dismiss him. But because he has successfully disguised his prop, he gets outsize attention, as witnessed by regular threads about him here.  "Professor 8 for 10 in calling Presidential elections" would be treated quite differently, yet that is exactly what the Keys are.

[SteveRogers]

https://twitter.com/Keys2WhiteHouse/status/1783297414767820900

https://twitter.com/PeterD58345/status/1784442276367769792

So if Biden wins, Lichtman gets to claim success. If Trump wins, Lichtman will decide that the "Challenger charisma" key should've been flipped the other way all along. Cool cool.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Have you noticed how Lichtman does it? Runeghost makes a good post about it.

The first few keys are clean and objective which gives the test a sense of validity. However, as you go towards the end it becomes incredibly subjective. You go from looking at raw numbers, to determining whether someone is "charismatic".

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I appreciate how they’re quibbling over the 3rd party vote because one says 10% and the other says 9.5%.

[Randy Marsh]

13 keys really strikes me as overfitting past data and expecting it to hold when all you did was fit noise (with malleable subjective keys, too). Doesn't help that number of keys doesn't seem to be correlated at all to margin of victory.

But his track record is exemplary so I don't think we can write it off.

[President Johnson]

I'm not sure the military failure key is false. Afghanistan was messy of course, but the public overall wanted to get out and end the two decades long war.

[TML]

I'm not sure the military failure key is false. Afghanistan was messy of course, but the public overall wanted to get out and end the two decades long war.

Indeed, Lichtman explicitly stated that Afghanistan is not on the minds of most people nowadays, so he wouldn’t count that against Biden.

[SteveRogers]

I appreciate how they’re quibbling over the 3rd party vote because one says 10% and the other says 9.5%.

It’s almost as if having one key that can’t actually be determined until after we (*checks notes*) know the results of the election might be a flaw in Lichtman’s election model.

[Burke Bro]

I'm not sure the military failure key is false. Afghanistan was messy of course, but the public overall wanted to get out and end the two decades long war.

The Afghanistan withdrawal coincides with a very sudden decline in Biden’s approval rating and one he hasn’t recovered from since.

Despite the problems with Lichtman's model that I think have been well articulated by users here, I agree with him on where all the keys are right now. The Columbia/Palestine protests are going to be something to watch for going into the summer. It generally takes a lot to sink an incumbent president  and COVID was almost certainly what did Trump in the last time.

[Dan the Roman]

I'm not sure the military failure key is false. Afghanistan was messy of course, but the public overall wanted to get out and end the two decades long war.

The Afghanistan withdrawal coincides with a very sudden decline in Biden’s approval rating and one he hasn’t recovered from since.

Despite the problems with Lichtman's model that I think have been well articulated by users here, I agree with him on where all the keys are right now. The Columbia/Palestine protests are going to be something to watch for going into the summer. It generally takes a lot to sink an incumbent president  and COVID was almost certainly what did Trump in the last time.

I don't think foriegn policy is seen as a "success". Whether any of Gaza/Afghanistan/Ukraine/the border amount to a failure the "lean" I think is correct insofar as the overall FP perception is a drag.

In a sense the easiest way to present this is if Biden was running against Haley or even Desantis, would he even try to speak about any of them? Or would the assumption be any mention of most US foriegn policy would hurt him, with focus groups reacting negatively to any "America is back!" messaging?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I'm not sure the military failure key is false. Afghanistan was messy of course, but the public overall wanted to get out and end the two decades long war.

Indeed, Lichtman explicitly stated that Afghanistan is not on the minds of most people nowadays, so he wouldn’t count that against Biden.

If he wants to not count Afghanistan, he needs to take back turning the key against Ford in '76 over the fall of Saigon. I mean the two things were pretty similar.

[wnwnwn]

Biden can fault Trump on Afganistan.

[TML]

I'm not sure the military failure key is false. Afghanistan was messy of course, but the public overall wanted to get out and end the two decades long war.

Indeed, Lichtman explicitly stated that Afghanistan is not on the minds of most people nowadays, so he wouldn’t count that against Biden.

If he wants to not count Afghanistan, he needs to take back turning the key against Ford in '76 over the fall of Saigon. I mean the two things were pretty similar.

If the Afghan withdrawal had happened in 2023, I'd be inclined to agree with you. Likewise, Ford would have won that key if Saigon had fallen in 1973 or 1974.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kabul 2021 made Saigon 1975 seem like a very orderly departure in comparison.

[robocop]

I would like to know what the "major policy change" is that the article confidently states as TRUE is?

[TML]

I would like to know what the "major policy change" is that the article confidently states as TRUE is?

I‘ll give you a hint: what were the two high-profile bills passed during the 117th Congress?

[BlueSwan]

Alan Lichtman is really nothing more than a con artist. But damn has he been succesful at it since people and the media still take his BS "model" seriously. I totally support Runeghosts description of this fraud.

[SWE]

13 keys really strikes me as overfitting past data and expecting it to hold when all you did was fit noise (with malleable subjective keys, too). Doesn't help that number of keys doesn't seem to be correlated at all to margin of victory.

But his track record is exemplary so I don't think we can write it off.

His record is 8 for 9, and that 8 includes freebies like 1996 and 2008. Impressive would be pushing it with that sample size, let alone exemplary

[TechbroMBA]

13 keys really strikes me as overfitting past data and expecting it to hold when all you did was fit noise (with malleable subjective keys, too). Doesn't help that number of keys doesn't seem to be correlated at all to margin of victory.

But his track record is exemplary so I don't think we can write it off.

He was wrong in 2000. And I don't want to hear any "popular vote" stuff because if his keys predict that, then it was wrong in 2016.

He has "predicted" 10 elections with one failure. 90% is cool and all, but it's not like these are coin flips.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I'm not sure the military failure key is false. Afghanistan was messy of course, but the public overall wanted to get out and end the two decades long war.

Indeed, Lichtman explicitly stated that Afghanistan is not on the minds of most people nowadays, so he wouldn’t count that against Biden.

If he wants to not count Afghanistan, he needs to take back turning the key against Ford in '76 over the fall of Saigon. I mean the two things were pretty similar.

If the Afghan withdrawal had happened in 2023, I'd be inclined to agree with you. Likewise, Ford would have won that key if Saigon had fallen in 1973 or 1974.

I read the book (the second edition, I believe)...he didn't say anything about when in the term the major failure occured...as long as it was during that term. He counted the Bay of Pigs against the Democrats in 1964 (along with just two other keys) even though it happened more than 3 1/2 years before the next election.

And as someone else pointed out, Biden's approval ratings never really recovered from Afghanistan so it is at least sorta on the public's mind.

13 keys really strikes me as overfitting past data and expecting it to hold when all you did was fit noise (with malleable subjective keys, too). Doesn't help that number of keys doesn't seem to be correlated at all to margin of victory.

But his track record is exemplary so I don't think we can write it off.

His record is 8 for 9, and that 8 includes freebies like 1996 and 2008. Impressive would be pushing it with that sample size, let alone exemplary

To be fair, he has sometimes predicted the outcome well in advance. For 2008, for example, he predicted in spring 2007 that the Republicans would likely lose even though he wasn't then counting EITHER economic key against them (he said both were still undecided, but we all know what happened).

Anyway, I'm going to go with Biden being down four keys (1, 10, 11, and 12) with a possible fifth (4) in danger. So for a predicted defeat, there needs to be a recession (5), a significant escalation of pro-Palestine protests (8 ), or a scandal with Biden that actually has credibility (9). Biden could still salvage key 11 with a breakthrough in Ukraine or Israel.