United Kingdom General Election 2024 : (Date to be confirmed)

[Libs of Ben-Gvir]

If Sunak follows what Sanchez did in Spain in 2023 he calls the GE after the locals end up in crushing tory losses.

Can't see them regrouping like PSOE though.

[Harry Hayfield]

If Sunak follows what Sanchez did in Spain in 2023 he calls the GE after the locals end up in crushing tory losses.

Can't see them regrouping like PSOE though.

The sole reason that Sanchez did that was to bring all the left wing parties in an electoral system that needs coalescing parties in order to get a majority, the UK's electoral system does not.

[YL]

If Sunak calls for an election this week, would it be on June 6 or June 13? Unclear on the timeline.

It's not the timing of the election call which settles the date, it's the Dissolution of Parliament: the General Election is held 25 working days after the dissolution. Because of the public holidays on 6 May and 27 May, this means that for a 6 June election Parliament would have to be dissolved tomorrow (unlikely I think even if the now scotched rumours turn out to be true after all) and for a 13 June election it would be dissolved on Wednesday 8 May.

The Commons Library has a list of the dissolution dates for each possible General Election date. NB a public holiday in any part of the UK is excluded from the definition of "working day", which is why the days of the week shift from Thursday to Wednesday once 12 July comes into the election period.

[IceAgeComing]

For what its worth; the Finance Bill hasn't yet gone through Parliament yet - believe its Committee of the Whole House next week and Bill Committee end of May. It is sort of important that parliament pass something because if they don't then the Provisional Collection of Taxes Act motion lapses and the government can no longer collect Income Tax which would not be great, to put it mildly. That does sort of rule out a 'we're dissolving Parliament tomorrow' thing unless they tip off Labour and get hasty agreement to barrel through legislation on the last day with no debate.

That's why there's always a wash-up period for any election call that isn't literally going as late as possible: when it happens there'll be agreements between the big two on what legislation passes and fails: and anything contentious will get binned until after the election.

[LabourJersey]

If Sunak calls for an election this week, would it be on June 6 or June 13? Unclear on the timeline.

It's not the timing of the election call which settles the date, it's the Dissolution of Parliament: the General Election is held 25 working days after the dissolution. Because of the public holidays on 6 May and 27 May, this means that for a 6 June election Parliament would have to be dissolved tomorrow (unlikely I think even if the now scotched rumours turn out to be true after all) and for a 13 June election it would be dissolved on Wednesday 8 May.

The Commons Library has a list of the dissolution dates for each possible General Election date. NB a public holiday in any part of the UK is excluded from the definition of "working day", which is why the days of the week shift from Thursday to Wednesday once 12 July comes into the election period.

Really helpful, thanks!

[CumbrianLefty]

Well it is becoming clearer that Sunak isn't going to call a GE *before* this weeks elections (not that I ever thought that a realistic possibility anyway)

Afterwards? Who knows.

But still October onwards should be the default assumption.

[TheTide]

Well it is becoming clearer that Sunak isn't going to call a GE *before* this weeks elections (not that I ever thought that a realistic possibility anyway)

Afterwards? Who knows.

But still October onwards should be the default assumption.

Scotland play Germany in the opening match of Euro 2024 in the evening of Friday the 14th of June. It taking place in the immediate aftermath of an SNP wipeout (or, indeed, a shockingly good SNP performance) would make the atmosphere a wee bit more interesting.

[CumbrianLefty]

He would have to call a June election *very* soon after what are likely to be pretty bruising results this week. July remains a possibility (maybe especially so if Tories do a bit "better than expected" - which would likely need more than just narrowly holding two mayoral races, however)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Whatever Rishi decides to do here, it's not exactly a good look to be waffling over when to call elections for months on end. I guess this is one of the many instances of Tories trying to be clever by half and missing the big picture.

[YL]

There is a constituency poll showing Penny Mordaunt narrowly ahead in her Portsmouth North constituency. It should be noted that this poll was commissioned by her constituency party and asked respondents what they thought of her before it asked the voting intention question.

[Torrain]

If I was on manoeuvres to be PM, in an increasingly marginal seat -  this is exactly what I’d do. Drop a slightly dodgy poll that shows I’d survive against the odds - implying that I was still a safe bet, and had a sizeable personal vote that might shake up the election.

Getting your local allies to commission it, and dropping it literally the day before what’s supposed to be Sunak’s moment of maximum weakness is a bit on the nose, though.

[JimJamUK]

There is a constituency poll showing Penny Mordaunt narrowly ahead in her Portsmouth North constituency. It should be noted that this poll was commissioned by her constituency party and asked respondents what they thought of her before it asked the voting intention question.

The initial reporting I saw missed out this part funnily enough.

[TheTide]

There is a constituency poll showing Penny Mordaunt narrowly ahead in her Portsmouth North constituency. It should be noted that this poll was commissioned by her constituency party and asked respondents what they thought of her before it asked the voting intention question.

There isn't actually all that much extraordinary about the results of the poll. The swing implies a Labour lead of around 18% on a national basis (i.e. pretty much exactly what the national polls are showing) and the Reform share (15%) is somewhat higher than what most of the national polls are showing in a somewhat more Brexity-than-average seat.

[Oryxslayer]

If I was on manoeuvres to be PM, in an increasingly marginal seat -  this is exactly what I’d do. Drop a slightly dodgy poll that shows I’d survive against the odds - implying that I was still a safe bet, and had a sizeable personal vote that might shake up the election.

Getting your local allies to commission it, and dropping it literally the day before what’s supposed to be Sunak’s moment of maximum weakness is a bit on the nose, though.

I guess we should start expecting that the Tory talking heads will find ways to bring up the wipeout that is likely coming to the Portsmouth Conservative Councilors after the results there declare. Cause if results are bad, and Mordaunt's group is actually gonna try something against Sunak, that would be how to rebuff it. Point out how her 'brand' did nothing, for the Tories, and they suffered just like everyone else nationally.

In the extremely, extremely, unlikely event that her local allies actually gain seats against the wave that will have proved her position beyond doubt - at least from London's narrative. And that would make a Coup much more likely, cause everyone else would have undeniable 'evidence.' But as we have discussed in the local thread, this will likely not occur, and the Portsmouth Tories will see their remaining delegation halved.

[Pericles]

Convergence gets closer-
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

[TheTide]

Convergence gets closer-
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

Would any aspiring leadership candidate be shameless enough to 'arrange' a poll to be released in the next two or three days showing Reform ahead of the Tories? I seem to recall similar tactics being used in the past.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Would any aspiring leadership candidate be shameless enough to 'arrange' a poll to be released in the next two or three days showing Reform ahead of the Tories? I seem to recall similar tactics being used in the past.

Why doctor it when you can just wait for the natural course of things?

[afleitch]

Handy prediction map/tool updated for 2024

https://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=predictit_new

[The Mikado]

Convergence gets closer-
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

Would any aspiring leadership candidate be shameless enough to 'arrange' a poll to be released in the next two or three days showing Reform ahead of the Tories? I seem to recall similar tactics being used in the past.

I've rarely seen Electoral Calculus get so broken by a poll.

Put this in and:

Lab 519
LD(!) 57 (calling BS on this)
Con 32
SNP 19
PC 3
Green 2
Northern Ireland 18
Reform 0

Electoral Calculus just isn't designed for results this wild.

[CumbrianLefty]

Electoral Calculus isn't designed for anything but the bin, you mean

[patzer]

Convergence gets closer-
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

Would any aspiring leadership candidate be shameless enough to 'arrange' a poll to be released in the next two or three days showing Reform ahead of the Tories? I seem to recall similar tactics being used in the past.

I've rarely seen Electoral Calculus get so broken by a poll.

Put this in and:

Lab 519
LD(!) 57 (calling BS on this)
Con 32
SNP 19
PC 3
Green 2
Northern Ireland 18
Reform 0

Electoral Calculus just isn't designed for results this wild.

Sounds about right to me. If the Tories are on 18%, that implies losing very safe seats where the Lib Dems are by far the nearest opposition. If the Tories are losing seats like Torbay, North Devon, and the Cotswolds seats, then yes the Lib Dems would be getting up to around 40 gains on top of their existing 15 seats.

[adma]

Convergence gets closer-
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1785894700496388140

Would any aspiring leadership candidate be shameless enough to 'arrange' a poll to be released in the next two or three days showing Reform ahead of the Tories? I seem to recall similar tactics being used in the past.

I've rarely seen Electoral Calculus get so broken by a poll.

Put this in and:

Lab 519
LD(!) 57 (calling BS on this)
Con 32
SNP 19
PC 3
Green 2
Northern Ireland 18
Reform 0

Electoral Calculus just isn't designed for results this wild.

Sounds about right to me. If the Tories are on 18%, that implies losing very safe seats where the Lib Dems are by far the nearest opposition. If the Tories are losing seats like Torbay, North Devon, and the Cotswolds seats, then yes the Lib Dems would be getting up to around 40 gains on top of their existing 15 seats.

It also makes more sense once the Lib Dems are in double-digit numbers.

[CumbrianLefty]

Number 10 now apparently saying no GE before the autumn.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

God, can't they just get it over with instead? This is starting to get ridiculous.

[Flyersfan232]

God, can't they just get it over with instead? This is starting to get ridiculous.

canada too